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Fed Interest Rate Decision
The FOMC sets the federal funds rate. The next decision is on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST.
Fed interest rate decision on Dec 9, 2026
Federal Reserve · Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
- New York
- Wed, Dec 9 · 2:00 PM EST
- London
- Wed, Dec 9 · 7:00 PM London
- UTC
- Wed, Dec 9 · 7:00 PM UTC
- Your time
- 7:00 PM UTC
- Press conference
- 2:30 PM EST
- Projections
- Yes, with new projections
- Expected
- No consensus yet
How EUR/USD reacts to the Fed decision
Measured on one-minute candles, every decision since January 2025, the same way each time. How we measure.
In 10 of 14 measured Fed decisions the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes, and in 9 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 (29%) the first move held. The median move in the first 15 minutes was 26 pips.
| Date | Decision | Against expected | Hour before | First side | Closed back | After 60 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | ▲ hike 3.75%–4.00% | as expected | 8.8 pips | ▲ 7.7 pips | 5 min | −68 pips |
| Jul 29, 2026 | ■ hold 3.50%–3.75% | as expected | 15 pips | ▲ 52 pips | No | +56 pips |
| Jun 17, 2026 | ■ hold 3.50%–3.75% | as expected | 8.3 pips | ▼ 52 pips | No | −56 pips |
| Apr 29, 2026 | ■ hold 3.50%–3.75% | as expected | 9.2 pips | ▼ 3.7 pips | 5 min | −15 pips |
| Mar 18, 2026 | ■ hold 3.50%–3.75% | as expected | 14 pips | ▲ 8.3 pips | 10 min | −39 pips |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ■ hold 3.50%–3.75% | as expected | 28 pips | ▼ 18 pips | 20 min | +19 pips |
| Dec 10, 2025 | ▼ cut 3.50%–3.75% | as expected | 7.4 pips | ▲ 20 pips | 45 min | +23 pips |
| Oct 29, 2025 | ▼ cut 3.75%–4.00% | as expected | 13 pips | ▼ 62 pips | No | −53 pips |
| Sep 17, 2025 | ▼ cut 4.00%–4.25% | as expected | 8.6 pips | ▲ 63 pips | 45 min | −18 pips |
| Jul 30, 2025 | ■ hold 4.25%–4.50% | as expected | 8.2 pips | ▲ 15 pips | 25 min | −56 pips |
| Jun 18, 2025 | ■ hold 4.25%–4.50% | as expected | 21 pips | ▲ 20 pips | 5 min | −22 pips |
| May 7, 2025 | ■ hold 4.25%–4.50% | as expected | 15 pips | ▲ 16 pips | 45 min | −7.1 pips |
| Mar 19, 2025 | ■ hold 4.25%–4.50% | as expected | 25 pips | ▲ 28 pips | No | +39 pips |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ■ hold 4.25%–4.50% | as expected | 9.5 pips | ▼ 27 pips | 45 min | −3.6 pips |
Counts include the decisions where the first spike did not close back. Up and down are the pair EUR/USD. Past reactions describe what happened; they are not a forecast.
Fed rate decisions since 2024
Every Fed decision on the federal funds rate since 2024, newest first. Between 3.50%–3.75% and 5.25%–5.50% over the period. The full Fed rate history since 2008 has every decision, the cycles and a CSV.
| Date | Decision | Rate | Expected | Previous | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | ■ hold | 3.75%–4.00% | Hold at 3.75%–4.00% | 3.75%–4.00% | 0 bp |
| Sep 16, 2026 | ▲ hike | 3.75%–4.00% | Hike 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% | 3.50%–3.75% | +25 bp |
| Jul 29, 2026 | ■ hold | 3.50%–3.75% | Hold at 3.50%–3.75% | 3.50%–3.75% | 0 bp |
| Jun 17, 2026 | ■ hold | 3.50%–3.75% | Hold at 3.50%–3.75% | 3.50%–3.75% | 0 bp |
| Apr 29, 2026 | ■ hold | 3.50%–3.75% | Hold at 3.50%–3.75% | 3.50%–3.75% | 0 bp |
| Mar 18, 2026 | ■ hold | 3.50%–3.75% | Hold at 3.50%–3.75% | 3.50%–3.75% | 0 bp |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ■ hold | 3.50%–3.75% | Hold at 3.50%–3.75% | 3.50%–3.75% | 0 bp |
| Dec 10, 2025 | ▼ cut | 3.50%–3.75% | Cut 25 bp to 3.50%–3.75% | 3.75%–4.00% | −25 bp |
| Oct 29, 2025 | ▼ cut | 3.75%–4.00% | Cut 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% | 4.00%–4.25% | −25 bp |
| Sep 17, 2025 | ▼ cut | 4.00%–4.25% | Cut 25 bp to 4.00%–4.25% | 4.25%–4.50% | −25 bp |
| Jul 30, 2025 | ■ hold | 4.25%–4.50% | Hold at 4.25%–4.50% | 4.25%–4.50% | 0 bp |
| Jun 18, 2025 | ■ hold | 4.25%–4.50% | Hold at 4.25%–4.50% | 4.25%–4.50% | 0 bp |
| May 7, 2025 | ■ hold | 4.25%–4.50% | Hold at 4.25%–4.50% | 4.25%–4.50% | 0 bp |
| Mar 19, 2025 | ■ hold | 4.25%–4.50% | Hold at 4.25%–4.50% | 4.25%–4.50% | 0 bp |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ■ hold | 4.25%–4.50% | Hold at 4.25%–4.50% | 4.25%–4.50% | 0 bp |
| Dec 18, 2024 | ▼ cut | 4.25%–4.50% | Cut 25 bp to 4.25%–4.50% | 4.50%–4.75% | −25 bp |
| Nov 7, 2024 | ▼ cut | 4.50%–4.75% | Cut 25 bp to 4.50%–4.75% | 4.75%–5.00% | −25 bp |
| Sep 18, 2024 | ▼ cut | 4.75%–5.00% | Cut 25 bp to 5.00%–5.25% | 5.25%–5.50% | −50 bp |
| Jul 31, 2024 | ■ hold | 5.25%–5.50% | Hold at 5.25%–5.50% | 5.25%–5.50% | 0 bp |
| Jun 12, 2024 | ■ hold | 5.25%–5.50% | Hold at 5.25%–5.50% | 5.25%–5.50% | 0 bp |
| May 1, 2024 | ■ hold | 5.25%–5.50% | Hold at 5.25%–5.50% | 5.25%–5.50% | 0 bp |
| Mar 20, 2024 | ■ hold | 5.25%–5.50% | Hold at 5.25%–5.50% | 5.25%–5.50% | 0 bp |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ■ hold | 5.25%–5.50% | Hold at 5.25%–5.50% | 5.25%–5.50% | 0 bp |
How the Federal Open Market Committee decides
Federal Reserve · United States
- Meetings
- Eight scheduled two-day meetings a year, roughly every six weeks.
- Announcement
- The statement is released at 2:00 pm New York time on the second day of the meeting.
- Press conference
- The Chair's press conference starts at 2:30 pm, thirty minutes after the statement.
- Projections
- In March, June, September and December the decision comes with the Summary of Economic Projections, including the "dot plot": where each official expects the rate to be at the end of each year.
- Who votes
- Twelve voters: the seven Governors of the Board, the president of the New York Fed, and four of the other eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who rotate each year.
Check times against the bank's own calendar.
- The decision against what was expected: a move the market already priced moves price less than a surprise.
- The statement: one changed phrase about inflation or the labour market can matter more than the rate.
- On projection months, the median dot for this year and next: more hikes or cuts pencilled in than before reads hawkish or dovish.
- The press conference at 2:30 pm: the first move often reverses once the Chair starts answering questions.
- Dissents: a vote against the decision shows which way the committee is leaning.
Which way EUR/USD moves. USD is the second currency in EUR/USD, so a hawkish surprise (a bigger hike, a smaller cut, a hold when a cut was expected) tends to push EUR/USD down, and a dovish one to push it up.
Fed meeting dates 2026 and 2027
Every upcoming Fed interest rate decision. Times in New York; your own time is on each decision's page. By year: Fed meeting dates 2025 · Fed meeting dates 2026 · Fed meeting dates 2027. How to trade them: FOMC day, measured. What comes next: the Fed rate forecast.
| Date | New York time | Expected | With projections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Dec 9, 2026 | 2:00 PM EST | Not yet | Yes | Preview → |
| Wed, Jan 27, 2027 | 2:00 PM EST | Not yet | — | |
| Wed, Mar 17, 2027 | 2:00 PM EDT | Not yet | Yes | |
| Wed, Apr 28, 2027 | 2:00 PM EDT | Not yet | — | |
| Wed, Jun 9, 2027 | 2:00 PM EDT | Not yet | Yes | |
| Wed, Jul 28, 2027 | 2:00 PM EDT | Not yet | — | |
| Wed, Sep 15, 2027 | 2:00 PM EDT | Not yet | Yes | |
| Wed, Oct 27, 2027 | 2:00 PM EDT | Not yet | — | |
| Wed, Dec 8, 2027 | 2:00 PM EST | Not yet | Yes |
Fed interest rate decision: questions
What time is the Fed interest rate decision?
2:00 pm New York time on the last day of the FOMC meeting, with the Chair's press conference at 2:30 pm.
How often does the Fed meet?
The FOMC holds eight scheduled meetings a year. It can also meet, and move rates, between them, as it did in March 2020.
What is the dot plot?
A chart published four times a year (March, June, September, December) showing where each FOMC participant expects the federal funds rate to be at the end of the next few years. The median dot is the one markets read.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The next Fed interest rate decision is on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST, with the press conference at 2:30 PM EST. Times are in New York time; the meeting dates below give the rest of the schedule.
What is the Fed interest rate now?
The federal funds rate is 3.75%–4.00%. The last change was an increase of 25 bp on Sep 16, 2026.
How does the Fed decision move EUR/USD?
In 10 of 14 measured Fed decisions the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes, and in 9 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 (29%) the first move held. The median move in the first 15 minutes was 26 pips. USD is the second currency in EUR/USD, so a hawkish surprise (a bigger hike, a smaller cut, a hold when a cut was expected) tends to push EUR/USD down, and a dovish one to push it up. Past reactions describe what happened, not what will.
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