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ECB Interest Rate Decision
The Governing Council sets the deposit facility rate. The next decision is on Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 2:15 PM Frankfurt; economists expect: hold at 2.50%.
ECB interest rate decision on Oct 29, 2026
European Central Bank · Governing Council
- Frankfurt
- Thu, Oct 29 · 2:15 PM Frankfurt
- New York
- Thu, Oct 29 · 9:15 AM EDT
- London
- Thu, Oct 29 · 1:15 PM London
- UTC
- Thu, Oct 29 · 1:15 PM UTC
- Your time
- 1:15 PM UTC
- Press conference
- 2:45 PM Frankfurt
- Projections
- No projections this time
- Expected
- Hold at 2.50%
Where to look, not a promise: most days one of the two plays and some days neither does. Levels from real 15-minute candles.
How EUR/USD reacts to the ECB decision
Measured on one-minute candles, every decision since January 2025, the same way each time. How we measure.
In 10 of 14 measured ECB decisions the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes, and in 6 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 (29%) the first move held. In 1 of them price did not leave the hour-before range in the first 30 minutes. The median move in the first 15 minutes was 15 pips.
| Date | Decision | Against expected | Hour before | First side | Closed back | After 60 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | ▲ hike 2.50% | as expected | 13 pips | ▼ 3.3 pips | 5 min | −15 pips |
| Jul 23, 2026 | ■ hold 2.25% | as expected | 23 pips | ▼ 2.4 pips | 15 min | −26 pips |
| Jun 11, 2026 | ▲ hike 2.25% | as expected | 9.1 pips | ▼ 16 pips | 35 min | −7.9 pips |
| Apr 30, 2026 | ■ hold 2.00% | as expected | 22 pips | ▼ 8.1 pips | 10 min | −11 pips |
| Mar 19, 2026 | ■ hold 2.00% | as expected | 33 pips | ▲ 8.4 pips | 10 min | +25 pips |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ■ hold 2.00% | as expected | 18 pips | ▲ 17 pips | No | +27 pips |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ■ hold 2.00% | as expected | 12 pips | ▲ 39 pips | No | +18 pips |
| Oct 30, 2025 | ■ hold 2.00% | as expected | 49 pips | None | — | +25 pips |
| Sep 11, 2025 | ■ hold 2.00% | as expected | 13 pips | ▼ 14 pips | 10 min | +44 pips |
| Jul 24, 2025 | ■ hold 2.00% | as expected | 13 pips | ▼ 15 pips | 55 min | +4.6 pips |
| Jun 5, 2025 | ▼ cut 2.00% | as expected | 14 pips | ▲ 5.0 pips | 5 min | +38 pips |
| Apr 17, 2025 | ▼ cut 2.25% | as expected | 17 pips | ▼ 18 pips | 30 min | −5.2 pips |
| Mar 6, 2025 | ▼ cut 2.50% | as expected | 19 pips | ▲ 38 pips | No | +31 pips |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ▼ cut 2.75% | as expected | 12 pips | ▲ 3.1 pips | 5 min | +33 pips |
Counts include the decisions where the first spike did not close back. Up and down are the pair EUR/USD. Past reactions describe what happened; they are not a forecast.
ECB rate decisions since 2024
Every ECB decision on the deposit facility rate since 2024, newest first. Between 2.00% and 4.00% over the period. The full ECB rate history since 2008 has every decision, the cycles and a CSV.
| Date | Decision | Rate | Expected | Previous | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | ▲ hike | 2.50% | Hike 25 bp to 2.50% | 2.25% | +25 bp |
| Jul 23, 2026 | ■ hold | 2.25% | Hold at 2.25% | 2.25% | 0 bp |
| Jun 11, 2026 | ▲ hike | 2.25% | Hike 25 bp to 2.25% | 2.00% | +25 bp |
| Apr 30, 2026 | ■ hold | 2.00% | Hold at 2.00% | 2.00% | 0 bp |
| Mar 19, 2026 | ■ hold | 2.00% | Hold at 2.00% | 2.00% | 0 bp |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ■ hold | 2.00% | Hold at 2.00% | 2.00% | 0 bp |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ■ hold | 2.00% | Hold at 2.00% | 2.00% | 0 bp |
| Oct 30, 2025 | ■ hold | 2.00% | Hold at 2.00% | 2.00% | 0 bp |
| Sep 11, 2025 | ■ hold | 2.00% | Hold at 2.00% | 2.00% | 0 bp |
| Jul 24, 2025 | ■ hold | 2.00% | Hold at 2.00% | 2.00% | 0 bp |
| Jun 5, 2025 | ▼ cut | 2.00% | Cut 25 bp to 2.00% | 2.25% | −25 bp |
| Apr 17, 2025 | ▼ cut | 2.25% | Cut 25 bp to 2.25% | 2.50% | −25 bp |
| Mar 6, 2025 | ▼ cut | 2.50% | Cut 25 bp to 2.50% | 2.75% | −25 bp |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ▼ cut | 2.75% | Cut 25 bp to 2.75% | 3.00% | −25 bp |
| Dec 12, 2024 | ▼ cut | 3.00% | Cut 25 bp to 3.00% | 3.25% | −25 bp |
| Oct 17, 2024 | ▼ cut | 3.25% | Cut 25 bp to 3.25% | 3.50% | −25 bp |
| Sep 12, 2024 | ▼ cut | 3.50% | Cut 25 bp to 3.50% | 3.75% | −25 bp |
| Jul 18, 2024 | ■ hold | 3.75% | Hold at 3.75% | 3.75% | 0 bp |
| Jun 6, 2024 | ▼ cut | 3.75% | Cut 25 bp to 3.75% | 4.00% | −25 bp |
| Apr 11, 2024 | ■ hold | 4.00% | Hold at 4.00% | 4.00% | 0 bp |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ■ hold | 4.00% | Hold at 4.00% | 4.00% | 0 bp |
| Jan 25, 2024 | ■ hold | 4.00% | Hold at 4.00% | 4.00% | 0 bp |
How the Governing Council decides
European Central Bank · Euro area
- Meetings
- Eight monetary policy meetings a year, every six weeks.
- Announcement
- The decision is published at 2:15 pm Frankfurt time (CET/CEST).
- Press conference
- The President's press conference starts at 2:45 pm, thirty minutes later.
- Projections
- In March, June, September and December the decision comes with new staff projections for growth and inflation.
- Who votes
- The six members of the Executive Board and the governors of the euro area national central banks; the governors vote in rotation.
Check times against the bank's own calendar.
- The deposit facility rate is the one that steers euro money markets; the main refinancing rate moves with it.
- The decision against what was expected.
- Whether the statement keeps the next move open ("meeting by meeting", "data-dependent") or leans one way.
- The inflation projections on projection months: a higher path reads hawkish.
- The press conference at 2:45 pm, where most of the day's move is often made.
Which way EUR/USD moves. EUR is the first currency in EUR/USD, so a hawkish surprise (a bigger hike, a smaller cut, a hold when a cut was expected) tends to push EUR/USD up, and a dovish one to push it down.
ECB meeting dates 2026 and 2027
Every upcoming ECB interest rate decision. Times in Frankfurt and New York; your own time is on each decision's page. By year: ECB meeting dates 2025 · ECB meeting dates 2026 · ECB meeting dates 2027.
| Date | Frankfurt time | New York | Expected | With projections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 29, 2026 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | Thu, Oct 29 · 9:15 AM EDT | Hold at 2.50% | — | Preview → |
| Thu, Dec 17, 2026 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | Thu, Dec 17 · 8:15 AM EST | Not yet | — | Preview → |
| Thu, Feb 4, 2027 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | Thu, Feb 4 · 8:15 AM EST | Not yet | — | |
| Thu, Mar 18, 2027 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | Thu, Mar 18 · 9:15 AM EDT | Not yet | — | |
| Thu, Apr 29, 2027 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | Thu, Apr 29 · 8:15 AM EDT | Not yet | — | |
| Thu, Jun 10, 2027 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | Thu, Jun 10 · 8:15 AM EDT | Not yet | — | |
| Thu, Jul 22, 2027 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | Thu, Jul 22 · 8:15 AM EDT | Not yet | — | |
| Thu, Sep 9, 2027 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | Thu, Sep 9 · 8:15 AM EDT | Not yet | — | |
| Thu, Oct 28, 2027 | 3:15 PM Frankfurt | Thu, Oct 28 · 9:15 AM EDT | Not yet | — | |
| Thu, Dec 16, 2027 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | Thu, Dec 16 · 8:15 AM EST | Not yet | — |
ECB interest rate decision: questions
What time is the ECB interest rate decision?
2:15 pm Frankfurt time, with the President's press conference at 2:45 pm.
Which ECB rate matters most?
The deposit facility rate, the rate banks earn on money left at the ECB overnight. It is the rate the ECB steers policy with; the main refinancing operations rate and the marginal lending rate are set above it.
When is the next ECB meeting?
The next ECB interest rate decision is on Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 2:15 PM Frankfurt, with the press conference at 2:45 PM Frankfurt. Times are in Frankfurt time; the meeting dates below give the rest of the schedule.
What is the ECB interest rate now?
The deposit facility rate is 2.50%. The last change was an increase of 25 bp on Sep 10, 2026.
How does the ECB decision move EUR/USD?
In 10 of 14 measured ECB decisions the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes, and in 6 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 (29%) the first move held. In 1 of them price did not leave the hour-before range in the first 30 minutes. The median move in the first 15 minutes was 15 pips. EUR is the first currency in EUR/USD, so a hawkish surprise (a bigger hike, a smaller cut, a hold when a cut was expected) tends to push EUR/USD up, and a dovish one to push it down. Past reactions describe what happened, not what will.
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