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Fed Interest Rate Decision, January 2025

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% on January 29, 2025, as expected.

Decision4.25%–4.50%■ hold
Against expectedAs expectedexpected 4.25%–4.50%
Previous4.25%–4.50%federal funds rate
EUR/USD one hour later −3.6 pips from the last price before
The result

What the Fed decided in January 2025

The move Hold Held at 4.25%–4.50%.
Against expected No surprise Economists expected: hold at 4.25%–4.50%. The decision was as expected.
Timing 2:00 PM EST Wednesday, January 29, 2025; press conference at 2:30 PM EST.
What price did

EUR/USD after the Fed decision, minute by minute

One-minute candles, New York time. The box is the hour before the announcement. How we measure.

EUR/USD one-minute chart around the Federal Reserve decision of Jan 29, 2025 The hour before the 14:00 announcement ranged 9.5 pips. The first spike went below it by 27 pips, and a five-minute candle closed back inside after 45 minutes. 1.039 1.040 1.041 1.042 1.043 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 THE HOUR BEFORE Fed 14:00 PRESS CONF. Spike 1.03883 · 27 pips past the hour's low Closed back inside · 45 min
  1. The hour beforeEUR/USD ranged 9.5 pips, from 1.04149 to 1.04244, and was at 1.04196 at the announcement.
  2. The first spike After 0 minutes price went through the hour's low and ran 27 pips past it.
  3. The close back A five-minute candle closed back inside the range after 45 minutes.
  4. The other side Price then traded through the opposite edge of the range within four hours.
  5. The moves From the last price before the announcement: −15 pips at 15 minutes, −3.6 pips at one hour, +1.1 pips at four hours.
For context

Across 14 measured Fed decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 9 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 26 pips.

This decision is one of the closed-back cases. Counts include the decisions where it did not close back. All Fed dates · Fed overview.

← Previous decisionFed, December 2024Cut 25 bp to 4.25%–4.50%
Next decision →Fed, March 2025Wed, Mar 19, 2:00 PM EDT
Questions

Fed January 2025 decision: questions

What time was the Fed interest rate decision on Jan 29, 2025?

It was announced at 2:00 PM EST (7:00 PM London London, 4:00 AM Tokyo Tokyo), with the press conference at 2:30 PM EST.

What did the Fed decide in January 2025?

Held at 4.25%–4.50% (previous 4.25%–4.50%). Economists expected: hold at 4.25%–4.50%, so the decision was as expected.

How did EUR/USD react to the Fed decision in January 2025?

On one-minute candles: the hour before ranged 9.5 pips; the first spike went below it by 27 pips; a five-minute candle closed back inside after 45 minutes; after one hour EUR/USD was −3.6 pips from its pre-announcement price.

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