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Fed Interest Rate Decision, September 2026

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026, as expected.

Decision3.75%–4.00%▲ hike +25 bp
Against expectedAs expectedexpected 3.75%–4.00%
Previous3.50%–3.75%federal funds rate
EUR/USD one hour later −68 pips from the last price before
The result

What the Fed decided in September 2026

The move +25 bp Raised 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%, from 3.50%–3.75%.
Against expected No surprise Economists expected: hike 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%. The decision was as expected.
The dots 4.1% In September the median official saw the rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 (the range 4.00%–4.25%: one more hike), then 4.1% in 2027 and 3.9% in 2028, and 3.2% in the longer run.
Timing 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday, September 16, 2026; press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.
What price did

EUR/USD after the Fed decision, minute by minute

One-minute candles, New York time. The box is the hour before the announcement. How we measure.

EUR/USD one-minute chart around the Federal Reserve decision of Sep 16, 2026 The hour before the 14:00 announcement ranged 8.8 pips. The first spike went above it by 7.7 pips, and a five-minute candle closed back inside after 5 minutes. 1.146 1.148 1.150 1.152 1.154 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 THE HOUR BEFORE Fed 14:00 PRESS CONF. Spike 1.15469 · 7.7 pips past the hour's high Closed back inside · 5 min
  1. The hour beforeEUR/USD ranged 8.8 pips, from 1.15304 to 1.15392, and was at 1.15387 at the announcement.
  2. The first spike After 0 minutes price went through the hour's high and ran 7.7 pips past it.
  3. The close back A five-minute candle closed back inside the range after 5 minutes.
  4. The other side Price then traded through the opposite edge of the range within four hours.
  5. The moves From the last price before the announcement: −38 pips at 15 minutes, −68 pips at one hour, −77 pips at four hours.
For context

Across 14 measured Fed decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 9 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 26 pips.

This decision is one of the closed-back cases. Counts include the decisions where it did not close back. All Fed dates · Fed overview.

← Previous decisionFed, July 2026Held at 3.50%–3.75% Next decision →Fed, October 2026Wed, Oct 28, 2:00 PM EDT
Questions

Fed September 2026 decision: questions

What time was the Fed interest rate decision on Sep 16, 2026?

It was announced at 2:00 PM EDT (7:00 PM London London, 3:00 AM Tokyo Tokyo), with the press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.

What did the Fed decide in September 2026?

Raised 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% (previous 3.50%–3.75%). Economists expected: hike 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%, so the decision was as expected.

How did EUR/USD react to the Fed decision in September 2026?

On one-minute candles: the hour before ranged 8.8 pips; the first spike went above it by 7.7 pips; a five-minute candle closed back inside after 5 minutes; after one hour EUR/USD was −68 pips from its pre-announcement price.

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