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Fed Interest Rate Decision, July 2025

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% on July 30, 2025, as expected.

Decision4.25%–4.50%■ hold
Against expectedAs expectedexpected 4.25%–4.50%
Previous4.25%–4.50%federal funds rate
EUR/USD one hour later −56 pips from the last price before
The result

What the Fed decided in July 2025

The move Hold Held at 4.25%–4.50%.
Against expected No surprise Economists expected: hold at 4.25%–4.50%. The decision was as expected.
Timing 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday, July 30, 2025; press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.
What price did

EUR/USD after the Fed decision, minute by minute

One-minute candles, New York time. The box is the hour before the announcement. How we measure.

EUR/USD one-minute chart around the Federal Reserve decision of Jul 30, 2025 The hour before the 14:00 announcement ranged 8.2 pips. The first spike went above it by 15 pips, and a five-minute candle closed back inside after 25 minutes. 1.142 1.144 1.146 1.148 1.150 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 THE HOUR BEFORE Fed 14:00 PRESS CONF. Spike 1.14969 · 15 pips past the hour's high Closed back inside · 25 min
  1. The hour beforeEUR/USD ranged 8.2 pips, from 1.14739 to 1.14821, and was at 1.14806 at the announcement.
  2. The first spike After 0 minutes price went through the hour's high and ran 15 pips past it.
  3. The close back A five-minute candle closed back inside the range after 25 minutes.
  4. The other side Price then traded through the opposite edge of the range within four hours.
  5. The moves From the last price before the announcement: +4.4 pips at 15 minutes, −56 pips at one hour, −74 pips at four hours.
For context

Across 14 measured Fed decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 9 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 26 pips.

This decision is one of the closed-back cases. Counts include the decisions where it did not close back. All Fed dates · Fed overview.

← Previous decisionFed, June 2025Held at 4.25%–4.50% Next decision →Fed, September 2025Wed, Sep 17, 2:00 PM EDT
Questions

Fed July 2025 decision: questions

What time was the Fed interest rate decision on Jul 30, 2025?

It was announced at 2:00 PM EDT (7:00 PM London London, 3:00 AM Tokyo Tokyo), with the press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.

What did the Fed decide in July 2025?

Held at 4.25%–4.50% (previous 4.25%–4.50%). Economists expected: hold at 4.25%–4.50%, so the decision was as expected.

How did EUR/USD react to the Fed decision in July 2025?

On one-minute candles: the hour before ranged 8.2 pips; the first spike went above it by 15 pips; a five-minute candle closed back inside after 25 minutes; after one hour EUR/USD was −56 pips from its pre-announcement price.

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