Fed Dot Plot
At the September 2026 meeting the median FOMC official saw the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 (4.00%–4.25%, one hike of a quarter point from today), 4.1% at the end of 2027, 3.9% at the end of 2028, 3.6% at the end of 2029 and 3.2% in the longer run. The rate was 3.75%–4.00% after that meeting.
The September 2026 dot plot: where the median official sees the rate
The median of the officials' dots for the end of each year, against the rate after the meeting. The full chart of every dot is in the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections.
| Year | Median dot | As a range | From today | June 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| End of 2026 | 4.1% | 4.00%–4.25% | one hike of a quarter point from today | 3.8% |
| End of 2027 | 4.1% | 4.00%–4.25% | one hike of a quarter point from today | 3.6% |
| End of 2028 | 3.9% | 3.75%–4.00% | no change from today | 3.4% |
| End of 2029 | 3.6% | 3.50%–3.75% | one cut of a quarter point from today | — |
| Longer run | 3.2% | 3.00%–3.25% | three cuts of a quarter point from today | 3.1% |
The median dot against the rate, every projection since December 2019
The amber line is where the median official expected the rate to end that year; the blue line is where the rate was.
- Federal funds rate (top of range)
- Median dot, end of that year
- Median dot, longer run
| Meeting | Rate after | End of that year | Next year | Year after | Third year | Longer run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 3.75%–4.00% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% |
| June 2026 | 3.50%–3.75% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | — | 3.1% |
| March 2026 | 3.50%–3.75% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | — | 3.1% |
| December 2025 | 3.50%–3.75% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| September 2025 | 4.00%–4.25% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| June 2025 | 4.25%–4.50% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | — | 3.0% |
| March 2025 | 4.25%–4.50% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | — | 3.0% |
| December 2024 | 4.25%–4.50% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| September 2024 | 4.75%–5.00% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| June 2024 | 5.25%–5.50% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | — | 2.8% |
| March 2024 | 5.25%–5.50% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | — | 2.6% |
| December 2023 | 5.25%–5.50% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| September 2023 | 5.25%–5.50% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| June 2023 | 5.00%–5.25% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | — | 2.5% |
| March 2023 | 4.75%–5.00% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | — | 2.5% |
| December 2022 | 4.25%–4.50% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| September 2022 | 3.00%–3.25% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| June 2022 | 1.50%–1.75% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | — | 2.5% |
| March 2022 | 0.25%–0.50% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | — | 2.4% |
| December 2021 | 0.00%–0.25% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% |
| September 2021 | 0.00%–0.25% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% |
| June 2021 | 0.00%–0.25% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | — | 2.5% |
| March 2021 | 0.00%–0.25% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | 2.5% |
| December 2020 | 0.00%–0.25% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.5% |
| September 2020 | 0.00%–0.25% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.5% |
| June 2020 | 0.00%–0.25% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | 2.5% |
| December 2019 | 1.50%–1.75% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% |
Medians as FXStreet's calendar records them. Some meetings give no third year. There was no projection in March 2020.
How accurate is the Fed dot plot a year out?
Each December the median official says where the rate will end the next year. Here is that dot beside where the rate did end (the middle of the range), for every year that is over.
| Year | December dot | Rate at year end | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 dot of Dec 18, 2024 | 3.9% | 3.50%–3.75% | −27 bp |
| 2024 dot of Dec 13, 2023 | 4.6% | 4.25%–4.50% | −22 bp |
| 2023 dot of Dec 14, 2022 | 4.1% | 5.25%–5.50% | +128 bp |
| 2022 dot of Dec 15, 2021 | 0.9% | 4.25%–4.50% | +348 bp |
| 2021 dot of Dec 16, 2020 | 0.1% | 0.00%–0.25% | +2 bp |
| 2020 dot of Dec 11, 2019 | 1.6% | 0.00%–0.25% | −147 bp |
A plus means the rate ended the year above the dot. The dot plot says what officials expect; the economy decides what they do.
How to read the dot plot on decision day
The dot plot comes out with the decision at 2:00 pm New York time on projection months, so the first spike in price often reacts to the dots as much as to the rate. What moves price is the change: a median that now shows more cuts for next year than it did three months ago reads dovish, and fewer reads hawkish.
Compare the new median with the last one, not with zero. In September 2026 the median for the end of 2027 was 4.1%, against 3.6% in June 2026.
The dots are opinions, and they change. The table above shows how far the December median has been from where the rate ended the next year. Treat it as the committee's mood on the day, not a schedule.
How price behaved around past Fed decisions, minute by minute, is on the Fed page; the read behind it is in how to trade interest rate decisions.
Fed dot plot: questions
What is the Fed dot plot?
A chart in the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, published four times a year (March, June, September, December). Each dot is one FOMC participant's view of where the federal funds rate should be at the end of each of the next few years and in the longer run. Markets read the median dot. It is a projection, not a promise: the rate has often ended a year far from it.
When is the next Fed dot plot?
With the decision of Wednesday, December 9, 2026, at 2:00 PM EST.
What did the September 2026 dot plot show?
At the September 2026 meeting the median FOMC official saw the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 (4.00%–4.25%, one hike of a quarter point from today), 4.1% at the end of 2027, 3.9% at the end of 2028, 3.6% at the end of 2029 and 3.2% in the longer run. The rate was 3.75%–4.00% after that meeting.
How accurate is the Fed dot plot?
Not very, a year out. Of the 6 December medians since 2019 for the year after, the rate ended that year within a quarter point of the dot 2 times; the widest miss was 348 bp.
What is the longer-run dot?
The median official's estimate of the rate that neither speeds up nor slows down the economy once it has settled, often called the neutral rate. It was 2.5% in December 2019 and 3.2% in September 2026.
Learn the read behind every projection.
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