ECB Interest Rate Decision, October 2026
The Governing Council announces on Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 2:15 PM Frankfurt. Economists expect a hold at 2.50%.
When is the ECB decision?
- Frankfurt
- Thu, Oct 29 · 2:15 PM Frankfurt
- New York
- Thu, Oct 29 · 9:15 AM EDT
- London
- Thu, Oct 29 · 1:15 PM London
- Tokyo
- Thu, Oct 29 · 10:15 PM Tokyo
- UTC
- Thu, Oct 29 · 1:15 PM UTC
- Your time
- 1:15 PM UTC
What is expected
- Consensus
- 2.50%
- Previous
- 2.50%
- Reading
- Hold at 2.50%
An expected move is already in the price: only the difference between the decision and the expectation tends to move it.
What will the ECB do?
The split shows once you vote. Voting closes at the announcement, in 14h 57m.
EUR/USD levels to watch before the ECB decision
Drawn from real 15-minute candles: the nearest standing high and low, where stops rest. A: the spike runs the high, closes back, and the low is next. B: the mirror. Where to look, not a promise: some days one plays and some days neither does. Vote on which one plays: it is settled on the 15-minute candles of the 24 hours after the announcement.
Which play happens on EUR/USD?
The split shows once you vote. Voting closes at the announcement, in 14h 57m.
Last price 1.11507. Levels are as of the candle that closed Oct 28, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC UTC; they are not updated until the site is rebuilt, and the vote is settled on the map as it stands at the announcement. This is where to look, not advice.
How the last ECB decisions moved EUR/USD
Across 14 measured ECB decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 6 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 15 pips.
| Date | Decision | First side | Closed back | After 60 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | ▲ hike 2.50% | ▼ 3.3 pips | 5 min | −15 pips |
| Jul 23, 2026 | ■ hold 2.25% | ▼ 2.4 pips | 15 min | −26 pips |
| Jun 11, 2026 | ▲ hike 2.25% | ▼ 16 pips | 35 min | −7.9 pips |
| Apr 30, 2026 | ■ hold 2.00% | ▼ 8.1 pips | 10 min | −11 pips |
| Mar 19, 2026 | ■ hold 2.00% | ▲ 8.4 pips | 10 min | +25 pips |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ■ hold 2.00% | ▲ 17 pips | No | +27 pips |
Up and down are the pair EUR/USD. A hawkish surprise (a bigger hike, a smaller cut, a hold when a cut was expected) tends to push EUR/USD up, because EUR is its first currency; a dovish one pushes it down.
ECB October 2026 decision: questions
What time is the ECB interest rate decision on Oct 29, 2026?
2:15 PM Frankfurt Frankfurt time on Thursday, October 29, 2026, which is 9:15 AM EDT in New York and 1:15 PM London in London. The press conference follows at 2:45 PM Frankfurt.
What is expected from the ECB in October 2026?
Economists expect: hold at 2.50%. The rate now is 2.50%.
How does the ECB decision move EUR/USD, and what should I watch?
Across 14 measured ECB decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 6 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 15 pips. The deposit facility rate is the one that steers euro money markets; the main refinancing rate moves with it. Past reactions describe what happened, not what will.
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