Will the Fed raise rates again in 2026?

At the September 2026 meeting the median official saw the rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 (4.00%–4.25%): one hike of a quarter point from today. One meeting is left this year. The median is a projection, not a promise.

What is the Fed rate forecast for 2027?

The median dot for the end of 2027 is 4.1%, a target range of 4.00%–4.25%: one hike of a quarter point from today.

When is the next Fed meeting?

Wednesday, December 9, 2026. The statement is at 2:00 PM EST, and economists expect no consensus yet.

Fed Rate Forecast 2027: What the Dot Plot Says

Q: How accurate is the Fed dot plot?

Not very, a year out. Each December's median for the following year missed where the rate ended by 112 basis points on average over the 6 years measured here, and by half a point or more in 3 of them.

Fed rate forecast: what the Fed and economists expect

The median official's next move is a hike: by the end of 2026 the median dot is 4.1%, one hike of a quarter point from today. That is the Fed's own forecast, from the September 2026 dot plot. Here it is in full, with what economists expect at the next meeting and how far past forecasts were from what happened.

Published Oct 25, 2026 · updated with the data Oct 28, 2026

Rate today3.75%–4.00%the target range

Next meetingWed, Dec 9expected: no consensus yet

End of 20264.1%one hike of a quarter point from today

End of 20274.1%one hike of a quarter point from today

In brief

The Fed's rate today: 3.75%–4.00%.
Next meeting: Wednesday, December 9, 2026; economists expect no consensus yet.
End of 2026: median dot 4.1%, one hike of a quarter point from today.
End of 2027: median dot 4.1%, one hike of a quarter point from today.
In the longer run: 3.2%, where officials think the rate settles once nothing is pushing it.
A year out, the median has missed by 112 basis points on average. Treat it as the Fed's thinking today, not a schedule.

The next meeting

The FOMC next decides on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, with the statement at 2:00 PM EST and a new dot plot alongside it. The economists' consensus is no consensus yet. Its page has the countdown, the projection of where the stops rest, and the result as soon as it is out.

What the Fed itself projects

Four times a year each FOMC official writes down where they think the rate should be at the end of this year, the next few years and in the longer run. The median of those "dots" is the closest thing to an official forecast. At the September 2026 meeting it was:

Horizon	Median dot	Target range	Against today	June 2026
End of 2026	4.1%	4.00%–4.25%	one hike of a quarter point from today	3.8%
End of 2027	4.1%	4.00%–4.25%	one hike of a quarter point from today	3.6%
End of 2028	3.9%	3.75%–4.00%	no change from today	3.4%
End of 2029	3.6%	3.50%–3.75%	one cut of a quarter point from today	—
Longer run	3.2%	3.00%–3.25%	longer run	3.1%

Horizon

Median dot

Target range

Against today

June 2026

End of 2026

4.1%

4.00%–4.25%

one hike of a quarter point from today

3.8%

End of 2027

4.1%

4.00%–4.25%

one hike of a quarter point from today

3.6%

End of 2028

3.9%

3.75%–4.00%

no change from today

3.4%

End of 2029

3.6%

3.50%–3.75%

one cut of a quarter point from today

—

Longer run

3.2%

3.00%–3.25%

longer run

3.1%

A median dot sits in the middle of a quarter-point range: 3.6 is 3.50%–3.75%. "Against today" counts quarter-point steps from the target range now. The last column is the same horizon at the June 2026 meeting.

When will the Fed raise rates again?

The median official's next move is a hike: by the end of 2026 the median dot is 4.1%, one hike of a quarter point from today. In the longer run the median is 3.2%, three cuts of a quarter point from today. The dots say what officials think is likely if the economy goes as they expect. When inflation or jobs surprise them, the dots move at the next projection meeting, and so does this page.

How far off the dots have been

Each December, the median dot for the following year is the Fed's forecast twelve months out. Over the 6 years this data can check, it missed where the rate ended by 112 basis points on average, and by half a point or more in 3.

2020: December 2019 median 1.6%; the year ended at 0.00%–0.25%, 147 bp lower than the median.
2021: December 2020 median 0.1%; the year ended at 0.00%–0.25%, 2 bp higher than the median.
2022: December 2021 median 0.9%; the year ended at 4.25%–4.50%, 348 bp higher than the median.
2023: December 2022 median 4.1%; the year ended at 5.25%–5.50%, 128 bp higher than the median.
2024: December 2023 median 4.6%; the year ended at 4.25%–4.50%, 22 bp lower than the median.
2025: December 2024 median 3.9%; the year ended at 3.50%–3.75%, 27 bp lower than the median.

The Fed dot plot page has every median at every projection meeting, and the rate's whole path is on the fed funds rate history.

Trading the next decision

A forecast is not a trade. What moves price at 2:00 pm is the decision against what was expected, and first the orders resting around the hour before. How to trade FOMC day has the Fed's own record on one-minute EUR/USD, and the guide the read behind it. Nothing on this page is investment advice.