InterestRateDecision ECB in 14h 57m
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Fed Interest Rate Decision, June 2025

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% on June 18, 2025, as expected.

Decision4.25%–4.50%■ hold
Against expectedAs expectedexpected 4.25%–4.50%
Previous4.25%–4.50%federal funds rate
EUR/USD one hour later −22 pips from the last price before
The result

What the Fed decided in June 2025

The move Hold Held at 4.25%–4.50%.
Against expected No surprise Economists expected: hold at 4.25%–4.50%. The decision was as expected.
The dots 3.9% In June the median official saw the rate at 3.9% at the end of 2025 (the range 3.75%–4.00%: two more cuts), then 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, and 3.0% in the longer run.
Timing 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday, June 18, 2025; press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.
What price did

EUR/USD after the Fed decision, minute by minute

One-minute candles, New York time. The box is the hour before the announcement. How we measure.

EUR/USD one-minute chart around the Federal Reserve decision of Jun 18, 2025 The hour before the 14:00 announcement ranged 21 pips. The first spike went above it by 20 pips, and a five-minute candle closed back inside after 5 minutes. 1.146 1.148 1.150 1.152 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 THE HOUR BEFORE Fed 14:00 PRESS CONF. Spike 1.15289 · 20 pips past the hour's high Closed back inside · 5 min
  1. The hour beforeEUR/USD ranged 21 pips, from 1.14878 to 1.15090, and was at 1.14969 at the announcement.
  2. The first spike After 0 minutes price went through the hour's high and ran 20 pips past it.
  3. The close back A five-minute candle closed back inside the range after 5 minutes.
  4. The other side Price then traded through the opposite edge of the range within four hours.
  5. The moves From the last price before the announcement: +19 pips at 15 minutes, −22 pips at one hour, −15 pips at four hours.
For context

Across 14 measured Fed decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 9 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 26 pips.

This decision is one of the closed-back cases. Counts include the decisions where it did not close back. All Fed dates · Fed overview.

← Previous decisionFed, May 2025Held at 4.25%–4.50% Next decision →Fed, July 2025Wed, Jul 30, 2:00 PM EDT
Questions

Fed June 2025 decision: questions

What time was the Fed interest rate decision on Jun 18, 2025?

It was announced at 2:00 PM EDT (7:00 PM London London, 3:00 AM Tokyo Tokyo), with the press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.

What did the Fed decide in June 2025?

Held at 4.25%–4.50% (previous 4.25%–4.50%). Economists expected: hold at 4.25%–4.50%, so the decision was as expected.

How did EUR/USD react to the Fed decision in June 2025?

On one-minute candles: the hour before ranged 21 pips; the first spike went above it by 20 pips; a five-minute candle closed back inside after 5 minutes; after one hour EUR/USD was −22 pips from its pre-announcement price.

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