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Fed Interest Rate Decision, September 2025

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate 25 bp to 4.00%–4.25% on September 17, 2025, as expected.

Decision4.00%–4.25%▼ cut −25 bp
Against expectedAs expectedexpected 4.00%–4.25%
Previous4.25%–4.50%federal funds rate
EUR/USD one hour later −18 pips from the last price before
The result

What the Fed decided in September 2025

The move −25 bp Cut 25 bp to 4.00%–4.25%, from 4.25%–4.50%.
Against expected No surprise Economists expected: cut 25 bp to 4.00%–4.25%. The decision was as expected.
The dots 3.6% In September the median official saw the rate at 3.6% at the end of 2025 (the range 3.50%–3.75%: two more cuts), then 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, and 3.0% in the longer run.
Timing 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday, September 17, 2025; press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.
What price did

EUR/USD after the Fed decision, minute by minute

One-minute candles, New York time. The box is the hour before the announcement. How we measure.

EUR/USD one-minute chart around the Federal Reserve decision of Sep 17, 2025 The hour before the 14:00 announcement ranged 8.6 pips. The first spike went above it by 63 pips, and a five-minute candle closed back inside after 45 minutes. 1.182 1.184 1.186 1.188 1.190 1.192 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 THE HOUR BEFORE Fed 14:00 PRESS CONF. Spike 1.19186 · 63 pips past the hour's high Closed back inside · 45 min
  1. The hour beforeEUR/USD ranged 8.6 pips, from 1.18465 to 1.18551, and was at 1.18517 at the announcement.
  2. The first spike After 0 minutes price went through the hour's high and ran 63 pips past it.
  3. The close back A five-minute candle closed back inside the range after 45 minutes.
  4. The other side Price then traded through the opposite edge of the range within four hours.
  5. The moves From the last price before the announcement: +41 pips at 15 minutes, −18 pips at one hour, −37 pips at four hours.
For context

Across 14 measured Fed decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 9 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 26 pips.

This decision is one of the closed-back cases. Counts include the decisions where it did not close back. All Fed dates · Fed overview.

← Previous decisionFed, July 2025Held at 4.25%–4.50% Next decision →Fed, October 2025Wed, Oct 29, 2:00 PM EDT
Questions

Fed September 2025 decision: questions

What time was the Fed interest rate decision on Sep 17, 2025?

It was announced at 2:00 PM EDT (7:00 PM London London, 3:00 AM Tokyo Tokyo), with the press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.

What did the Fed decide in September 2025?

Cut 25 bp to 4.00%–4.25% (previous 4.25%–4.50%). Economists expected: cut 25 bp to 4.00%–4.25%, so the decision was as expected.

How did EUR/USD react to the Fed decision in September 2025?

On one-minute candles: the hour before ranged 8.6 pips; the first spike went above it by 63 pips; a five-minute candle closed back inside after 45 minutes; after one hour EUR/USD was −18 pips from its pre-announcement price.

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