Fed Interest Rate Decision, December 2026
The FOMC announces on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST. There is no consensus figure yet.
When is the Fed decision?
- New York
- Wed, Dec 9 · 2:00 PM EST
- London
- Wed, Dec 9 · 7:00 PM London
- Tokyo
- Thu, Dec 10 · 4:00 AM Tokyo
- UTC
- Wed, Dec 9 · 7:00 PM UTC
- Your time
- 7:00 PM UTC
What is expected
- Consensus
- Not yet
- Previous
- 3.75%–4.00%
- Reading
- No consensus yet
In September the median official saw the rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 (the range 4.00%–4.25%: one more hike), then 4.1% in 2027 and 3.9% in 2028, and 3.2% in the longer run.
An expected move is already in the price: only the difference between the decision and the expectation tends to move it.
What will the Fed do?
The split shows once you vote. Voting closes at the announcement, in 41d 20h.
EUR/USD levels to watch before the Fed decision
Drawn from real 15-minute candles: the nearest standing high and low, where stops rest. A: the spike runs the high, closes back, and the low is next. B: the mirror. Where to look, not a promise: some days one plays and some days neither does. Vote on which one plays: it is settled on the 15-minute candles of the 24 hours after the announcement.
Which play happens on EUR/USD?
The split shows once you vote. Voting closes at the announcement, in 41d 20h.
Last price 1.11507. Levels are as of the candle that closed Oct 28, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC UTC; they are not updated until the site is rebuilt, and the vote is settled on the map as it stands at the announcement. This is where to look, not advice.
How the last Fed decisions moved EUR/USD
Across 14 measured Fed decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 9 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 26 pips.
| Date | Decision | First side | Closed back | After 60 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | ▲ hike 3.75%–4.00% | ▲ 7.7 pips | 5 min | −68 pips |
| Jul 29, 2026 | ■ hold 3.50%–3.75% | ▲ 52 pips | No | +56 pips |
| Jun 17, 2026 | ■ hold 3.50%–3.75% | ▼ 52 pips | No | −56 pips |
| Apr 29, 2026 | ■ hold 3.50%–3.75% | ▼ 3.7 pips | 5 min | −15 pips |
| Mar 18, 2026 | ■ hold 3.50%–3.75% | ▲ 8.3 pips | 10 min | −39 pips |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ■ hold 3.50%–3.75% | ▼ 18 pips | 20 min | +19 pips |
Up and down are the pair EUR/USD. A hawkish surprise (a bigger hike, a smaller cut, a hold when a cut was expected) tends to push EUR/USD down, because USD is its second currency; a dovish one pushes it up.
Fed December 2026 decision: questions
What time is the Fed interest rate decision on Dec 9, 2026?
2:00 PM EST New York time on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, which is 7:00 PM London in London and 4:00 AM Tokyo in Tokyo. The press conference follows at 2:30 PM EST.
What is expected from the Fed in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet. The rate now is 3.75%–4.00%.
How does the Fed decision move EUR/USD, and what should I watch?
Across 14 measured Fed decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 9 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 26 pips. The decision against what was expected: a move the market already priced moves price less than a surprise. Past reactions describe what happened, not what will.
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