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Fed Interest Rate Decision, March 2025

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% on March 19, 2025, as expected.

Decision4.25%–4.50%■ hold
Against expectedAs expectedexpected 4.25%–4.50%
Previous4.25%–4.50%federal funds rate
EUR/USD one hour later +39 pips from the last price before
The result

What the Fed decided in March 2025

The move Hold Held at 4.25%–4.50%.
Against expected No surprise Economists expected: hold at 4.25%–4.50%. The decision was as expected.
The dots 3.9% In March the median official saw the rate at 3.9% at the end of 2025 (the range 3.75%–4.00%: two more cuts), then 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, and 3.0% in the longer run.
Timing 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday, March 19, 2025; press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.
What price did

EUR/USD after the Fed decision, minute by minute

One-minute candles, New York time. The box is the hour before the announcement. How we measure.

EUR/USD one-minute chart around the Federal Reserve decision of Mar 19, 2025 The hour before the 14:00 announcement ranged 25 pips. The first spike went above it by 28 pips, and did not close back inside within the hour. 1.086 1.088 1.090 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 THE HOUR BEFORE Fed 14:00 PRESS CONF. Spike 1.09130 · 28 pips past the hour's high
  1. The hour beforeEUR/USD ranged 25 pips, from 1.08603 to 1.08852, and was at 1.08691 at the announcement.
  2. The first spike After 0 minutes price went through the hour's high and ran 28 pips past it.
  3. The close back No five-minute candle closed back inside the range within the hour: the first move held.
  4. The other side Not measured: it needs a close back first.
  5. The moves From the last price before the announcement: +18 pips at 15 minutes, +39 pips at one hour, +35 pips at four hours.
For context

Across 14 measured Fed decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 9 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 26 pips.

This decision is one where the first move held. Counts include the decisions where it did not close back. All Fed dates · Fed overview.

← Previous decisionFed, January 2025Held at 4.25%–4.50% Next decision →Fed, May 2025Wed, May 7, 2:00 PM EDT
Questions

Fed March 2025 decision: questions

What time was the Fed interest rate decision on Mar 19, 2025?

It was announced at 2:00 PM EDT (6:00 PM London London, 3:00 AM Tokyo Tokyo), with the press conference at 2:30 PM EDT.

What did the Fed decide in March 2025?

Held at 4.25%–4.50% (previous 4.25%–4.50%). Economists expected: hold at 4.25%–4.50%, so the decision was as expected.

How did EUR/USD react to the Fed decision in March 2025?

On one-minute candles: the hour before ranged 25 pips; the first spike went above it by 28 pips; it did not close back inside within the hour; after one hour EUR/USD was +39 pips from its pre-announcement price.

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