How do you trade FOMC?

Not by guessing the decision. Mark the high and low of the hour before 2:00 pm, let the first spike run past one edge, and act only if a five-minute candle closes back inside that range. In 14 Fed decisions measured since Jan 29, 2025, the first spike closed back within the hour 10 times and went on to the other side 9 times; 4 first spikes held. Size for the ones that hold.

Does the press conference move the market more than the statement?

Sometimes. In 11 of 14 measured decisions, EUR/USD moved through a wider range in the half hour after the press conference began than in the half hour after the statement. So the second burst was usually the bigger one, even though the statement's half hour holds the first spike.

Which pair should I trade on FOMC day?

This site measures the Fed on EUR/USD, the most traded currency pair, so its counts are for EUR/USD only. The dollar is on one side of every major pair, so all of them move at 2:00 pm, but by different amounts and with different spreads.

How to Trade FOMC: EUR/USD After Every Fed Decision

In brief

The statement lands at 2:00 pm New York time; the Chair's press conference starts at 2:30 pm.
Mark the high and low of the hour before. Stops rest just outside it.
Let the first spike run. Act only if a five-minute candle closes back inside the range within the hour.
Then watch 2:30 pm: the press conference is a second event, with its own spike.
On the Fed's record, the first spike closed back 71% of the time. The rest held, and they are the large moves.

What makes FOMC day different

Eight scheduled two-day meetings a year, roughly every six weeks. The statement is released at 2:00 pm New York time on the second day of the meeting. The Chair's press conference starts at 2:30 pm, thirty minutes after the statement. In March, June, September and December the decision comes with the Summary of Economic Projections, including the "dot plot": where each official expects the rate to be at the end of each year.

The dollar sits on one side of every major pair, so at 2:00 pm every one of them moves at once. That makes the Fed's decision the busiest minute on the calendar, and its first spike one of the least considered: orders land in the same minute and go wherever there is something to fill them, which is first the stops resting around the hour before. We measure it on EUR/USD, where a stronger dollar is a fall in the pair.

Every Fed decision, measured

The same rules as every decision on this site: the hour-before range, the first break of it within 30 minutes, a five-minute close back inside within 60 minutes, then the other side within four hours. The method page has them in full.

"Dots": a meeting with the Summary of Economic Projections. "Hour later" is EUR/USD's move from the last price before the statement.

Decision	Result	Against the consensus	Hour before	First spike	Other side	Hour later
Sep 16, 2026 dots	Raised 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%	as expected	8.8 pips	Up 7.7 pips, back in 5 min	Yes	−68 pips
Jul 29, 2026	Held at 3.50%–3.75%	as expected	15 pips	Up 52 pips, held	—	+56 pips
Jun 17, 2026 dots	Held at 3.50%–3.75%	as expected	8.3 pips	Down 52 pips, held	—	−56 pips
Apr 29, 2026	Held at 3.50%–3.75%	as expected	9.2 pips	Down 3.7 pips, back in 5 min	No	−15 pips
Mar 18, 2026 dots	Held at 3.50%–3.75%	as expected	14 pips	Up 8.3 pips, back in 10 min	Yes	−39 pips
Jan 28, 2026	Held at 3.50%–3.75%	as expected	28 pips	Down 18 pips, back in 20 min	Yes	+19 pips
Dec 10, 2025 dots	Cut 25 bp to 3.50%–3.75%	as expected	7.4 pips	Up 20 pips, back in 45 min	Yes	+23 pips
Oct 29, 2025	Cut 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%	as expected	13 pips	Down 62 pips, held	—	−53 pips
Sep 17, 2025 dots	Cut 25 bp to 4.00%–4.25%	as expected	8.6 pips	Up 63 pips, back in 45 min	Yes	−18 pips
Jul 30, 2025	Held at 4.25%–4.50%	as expected	8.2 pips	Up 15 pips, back in 25 min	Yes	−56 pips
Jun 18, 2025 dots	Held at 4.25%–4.50%	as expected	21 pips	Up 20 pips, back in 5 min	Yes	−22 pips
May 7, 2025	Held at 4.25%–4.50%	as expected	15 pips	Up 16 pips, back in 45 min	Yes	−7.1 pips
Mar 19, 2025 dots	Held at 4.25%–4.50%	as expected	25 pips	Up 28 pips, held	—	+39 pips
Jan 29, 2025	Held at 4.25%–4.50%	as expected	9.5 pips	Down 27 pips, back in 45 min	Yes	−3.6 pips

Of 14 Fed decisions, the first spike left the hour-before range in 14, closed back inside within the hour in 10 and went on to the other side in 9. Across all eight banks the figures are 67 of 105 closed back (64%) and 42 to the other side, so on this record the Fed's first spike has closed back at least as often as the average bank's. 14 decisions is a small sample, and none of this says what the next one will do.

The latest: Sep 16, 2026

The Fed raised 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%, as expected. The hour before ranged 8.8 pips. The first spike ran above it by 7.7 pips, a five-minute candle closed back inside after 5 minutes, and price went on to take the other side. An hour after the statement EUR/USD stood −68 pips from where it was.

EUR/USD · 1-minute · New York time

The full decision, minute by minute.

The press conference: a second event

Thirty minutes after the statement the Chair starts taking questions, and an answer can move price as far as the rate did. We compared the range of EUR/USD in the half hour after the statement with the half hour after the press conference began. The press conference's half hour was the wider in 11 of 14 decisions. So the second burst was usually the bigger one, even though the statement's half hour holds the first spike. Either way, 2:30 pm is not the end of the day's risk. Whatever you did at 2:00 pm, decide before 2:30 pm what you will do if the second burst runs against it.

Projection meetings

Four times a year the decision comes with the dot plot, the officials' own projections, and the number has company. On the record, the first spike closed back within the hour in 5 of 7 projection meetings and 5 of 7 of the others. The samples are too small to tell the two apart. The Fed dot plot page has every median and how far off it was.

When the first spike held

The read has a failure case, and on FOMC day it is a big one. On Mar 19, 2025, Oct 29, 2025, Jun 17, 2026 and Jul 29, 2026 the first spike ran and no five-minute candle closed back inside within the hour. Under this read those are days with no trade, and that is a result: the discipline of waiting for the close is what keeps a trader out of the decision that simply runs.

FOMC day checklist

Know the time in your own zone: 2:00 pm New York is when the statement lands, 2:30 pm when the Chair speaks. The Fed page shows both in your time.
Read what is expected: the rate, and on projection months the dots. A decision that matches the consensus is not news on its own.
At 1:00 pm, mark the high and low of the hour before on the one-minute chart.
Mark the levels beyond it where stops rest: the day's high and low, the previous day's, the week's.
Decide before 2:00 pm what you do if the first spike does not close back. Write it down.
Size for the spike that holds, not the median one. Spreads widen at the minute of the decision, and stops can fill far from where they sit.
At 2:00 pm, do nothing. Wait for a five-minute close back inside the range.
At 2:30 pm, expect a second burst. Decide in advance whether you hold through it.
Save the chart afterwards and note what happened. Your own record beats any count on this page.

The next FOMC decision is on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST, with no consensus yet expected. Its preview projects where the stops rest around it.

An honest word on risk

Everything here counts what EUR/USD did after past Fed decisions, measured with fixed rules. It is not a forecast or a signal, and nothing on this site is investment advice. FOMC day is among the riskiest times to trade: prices gap, spreads widen, and leveraged positions can lose more than was put in. The full read, from the stops before a release to what to do with the close back, is taught by Forexia.

How to trade FOMC day