The Q3 2023 figures
Released Thursday, October 26, 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, as first published.
| Measure | Q3 2023 (advance) | Q2 2023 (third) |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth, annualized | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| GDP price index, annualized | 3.5% | 1.7% |
As first published: later reports revise these figures. This compares with earlier reports, not with what economists expected.
What the dollar did in the hour after
Pips against the last price before the release (8:30 AM EDT), from one-minute candles. A negative EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD or NZD/USD move, or a positive USD/JPY, USD/CHF or USD/CAD move, is a higher dollar.
| Pair | 1 min | 5 min | 15 min | 60 min | Furthest up, 15 min | Furthest down, 15 min | At 15 minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | +3.2 | +7.6 | +9.9 | +11.1 | +15.1 | −14.8 | dollar lower |
| GBP/USD | +2.6 | +12.4 | +13.9 | +20.6 | +20.4 | −13.9 | dollar lower |
| USD/JPY | −4.1 | −5.7 | −9.9 | −17.1 | +14.7 | −15.7 | dollar lower |
| USD/CHF | +0.9 | −3.0 | −5.8 | −8.6 | +13.6 | −8.2 | dollar lower |
| AUD/USD | +1.9 | +7.6 | +10.2 | +14.4 | +12.5 | −11.4 | dollar lower |
| USD/CAD | −0.5 | −1.6 | −0.3 | +0.8 | +9.8 | −7.3 | dollar lower |
| NZD/USD | +2.6 | +8.8 | +13.2 | +19.3 | +14.3 | −9.5 | dollar lower |
Past reactions describe what happened; they are not a forecast. All 44 reports since Jan 26, 2023 are compared on the GDP report page.
What it means for the next Fed decision
The Fed decides next on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST. Data like this GDP report is part of what the committee weighs: see the Fed rate forecast for the dots against today’s rate.
The odds from the record for that meeting: hold 62%. They are counted from every Fed decision since 2008 by fixed rules, not from markets and not from this report: how they are made.
More
The next GDP release, for Q3 2026, is due on Wednesday, November 25, 2026. Also: the US CPI report, the jobs report, PCE inflation, retail sales and GDP.
← Q2 2023, third Q3 2023, second →
Questions
What was the Q3 2023 GDP report?
The advance estimate of US gross domestic product for Q3 2023 showed the economy growing at an annual rate of 4.9%, against 2.1% in the latest Q2 2023 estimate. The GDP price index rose 3.5% at an annual rate.
How did the dollar react to the Q3 2023 GDP report?
Measured on one-minute candles against the last price before the release, EUR/USD moved +3.2 pips in one minute, +7.6 in five, +9.9 in fifteen and +11.1 in sixty (a negative move is a higher dollar). In the first 15 minutes it went as far as +15.1 up and −14.8 down. Past reactions describe what happened, not what will.
Was it higher or lower than the report before?
The headline figure, gdp growth, annualized, was 4.9%, higher than 2.1% in the Q2 2023 third report. That compares with the report before, not with what economists expected, which this site does not publish.
Where do the figures come from?
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, as first published, read automatically and never typed by hand. Reports are later revised, so a later figure for the same month can differ; check the agency’s own site.