Will the ECB raise rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet for the Dec 17, 2026 decision. The rate is 2.50%, and the last move was +25 bp on Sep 10, 2026.
Figures as of Nov 3, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC.
What the data says
The latest run of moves was 2 rises totalling 50 bp, from Jun 11, 2026 to Sep 10, 2026.
At its latest decision, on Oct 29, 2026, the ECB: held at 2.50%, as expected.
Since 2016 the ECB matched the consensus in 85 of the 87 decisions the calendar has one for, came out above it in 2 and below it in 0. That is a record of the consensus. The ECB rate odds turn the same record into the chance of each move at each meeting, with how right they have been.
Read the full preview on the ECB December 2026 decision page, the ECB rate history since 2008, or every central bank's rate today.
The next ECB decisions
| Date | Time | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2026 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | No consensus yet |
| Feb 4, 2027 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | No consensus yet |
| Mar 18, 2027 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | No consensus yet |
| Apr 29, 2027 | 2:15 PM Frankfurt | No consensus yet |
The last 8 ECB decisions against the consensus
| Date | Decision | Against expected |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | hold 2.50% | as expected |
| Sep 10, 2026 | hike 2.50% | as expected |
| Jul 23, 2026 | hold 2.25% | as expected |
| Jun 11, 2026 | hike 2.25% | as expected |
| Apr 30, 2026 | hold 2.00% | as expected |
| Mar 19, 2026 | hold 2.00% | as expected |
| Feb 5, 2026 | hold 2.00% | as expected |
| Dec 18, 2025 | hold 2.00% | as expected |
ECB rates: questions
Will the ECB raise rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet for the Dec 17, 2026 decision. The rate is 2.50%, and the last move was +25 bp on Sep 10, 2026. This is what economists expect, not a promise of what the bank will do.
Will the ECB cut rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet. The last move was raised 25 bp to 2.50% on Sep 10, 2026.
When is the next ECB decision?
Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 2:15 PM Frankfurt. The press conference follows at 2:45 PM Frankfurt.
How often is the consensus right about the ECB?
Since 2016 the ECB matched the consensus in 85 of the 87 decisions the calendar has one for, came out above it in 2 and below it in 0. Agreement on the number does not say how price reacts: an expected move is usually already in the price.
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