ECB Rate Hike Odds for December 2026
At the Dec 17, 2026 meeting: hold 75%, hike 24%, cut 1%. By Oct 28, 2027, a 41% chance the rate is below today's 2.50% and 47% that it is above.
Decision in 44d 4h
Figures as of Nov 3, 2026, 8:20 AM UTC. Not market odds and not advice: how they are made.
Where the ECB's rate could be after each meeting
Each cell is the chance the rate is there after that meeting, over every path the meetings before it could take. The outlined column is today's rate.
| Meeting | 1.50 or lower | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50today | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 4.00 or higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2026from the run | 1% | 75% | 24% | ||||||||
| Feb 4, 2027from the run | 1% | 56% | 28% | 14% | |||||||
| Mar 18, 2027from the run | 1% | 15% | 37% | 19% | 19% | 9% | |||||
| Apr 29, 2027from the run | 8% | 18% | 24% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 5% | ||||
| Jun 10, 2027from the run | 4% | 10% | 18% | 17% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 8% | 3% | ||
| Jul 22, 2027from the run | 2% | 6% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 2% |
| Sep 9, 2027from the run | 4% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 14% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 5% |
| Oct 28, 2027from the run | 7% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% |
- Dec 17, 2026
- 2.50% (today)75%
- 2.75%24%
- 2.25%1%
- Feb 4, 2027
- 2.50% (today)56%
- 2.75%28%
- 3.00%14%
- 2.25%1%
- Mar 18, 2027
- 2.50% (today)37%
- 2.75%19%
- 3.00%19%
- 2.25%15%
- Apr 29, 2027
- 2.50% (today)24%
- 2.25%18%
- 2.75%16%
- 3.00%16%
- Jun 10, 2027
- 2.25%18%
- 2.50% (today)17%
- 3.00%14%
- 2.75%12%
- Jul 22, 2027
- 2.25%16%
- 2.50% (today)16%
- 2.00%12%
- 3.25%11%
- Sep 9, 2027
- 2.25%16%
- 2.50% (today)14%
- 2.00%11%
- 3.25%10%
- Oct 28, 2027
- 2.25%16%
- 2.50% (today)13%
- 2.00%11%
- 3.50%8%
The ECB rate: two years behind, a year of odds ahead
| Meeting | Odds | Below today | Above today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2026from the run | Cut 1% Hold 75% Hike 24% | 1% | 24% |
| Feb 4, 2027from the run | Cut 1% Hold 66% Hike 32% | 1% | 42% |
| Mar 18, 2027from the run | Cut 16% Hold 58% Hike 27% | 16% | 47% |
| Apr 29, 2027from the run | Cut 17% Hold 59% Hike 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Jun 10, 2027from the run | Cut 18% Hold 60% Hike 22% | 32% | 50% |
| Jul 22, 2027from the run | Cut 17% Hold 64% Hike 19% | 35% | 49% |
| Sep 9, 2027from the run | Cut 17% Hold 66% Hike 17% | 38% | 48% |
| Oct 28, 2027from the run | Cut 17% Hold 67% Hike 16% | 41% | 47% |
How these odds are made
These are not market odds. Those come from futures prices, which are licensed, and they say what traders are paying for. These odds are a record: how often decisions like the next one have gone each way, counted from every decision of the ten banks since 2008. The rules are fixed:
- When economists' consensus is out (usually the week before), the odds are how often decisions with the same expected move went each way. It is the bank's own record, pulled toward all ten banks' while the bank has few such decisions (as if all ten banks' record were 12 more decisions of its own).
- Before then, how often the bank moved after the same run: which way its last move went, and how many holds since (none, 1–2, 3–5, 6 or more).
- Meetings further ahead follow every path the earlier meetings could take. A move is the consensus's size where it gives one, else the bank's usual step: the middle size of its last six moves.
- Nothing is tuned on the record. Each decision since 2010 is scored with only the decisions before it.
What it does not know: what the bank has said, the latest inflation or jobs figures, or anything in the news. A bank that has held for a year and then signals a cut gets no credit for the signal until the consensus moves. Read the odds beside the bank's own words, not instead of them. The whole test, bank by bank: can central bank decisions be predicted?
How the odds did for the ECB, 2010 to 2026
| Decisions | Likeliest came true | Brier score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| With the consensus out | 87 | 98.9% | 0.026 |
| The consensus alone | 87 | 98.9% | 0.023 |
| Before the consensus (one meeting ahead) | 155 | 79.4% | 0.290 |
| 3 meetings ahead | 155 | 78.1% | 0.326 |
| Guessing each move's usual share | 155 | — | 0.349 |
The Brier score is the squared distance between the odds and what happened: 0 is perfect, and lower is better. With the consensus out, the odds score a little worse than the consensus taken as certain: they mostly agree with it, and only add how often it has been wrong. 3 meetings out they beat guessing by 7%: the far columns are the weak part.
Do the odds mean what they say?
A 30% chance should come true about 30% of the time. The chart groups every forecast by what it said and shows how often that happened. Dots on the line are honest; above it, the odds said too little; below it, too much.
When the odds were 90% or more sure before the consensus was out, they were right 45 times in 52 (87%). With the consensus out: 82 in 83.
When the consensus was wrong about the ECB
The latest 1 of the 1 decisions since 2010 that went another way than economists expected, and what these odds gave the move that happened.
| Decision | Expected | Happened | The odds gave it |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECB, Sep 14, 2023 | hold | hike | <1% |
More on the ECB
- The ECB December 2026 decision: time, consensus and the pair's projection.
- Will the ECB raise or cut rates? What economists expect of the ECB.
- ECB rate history since 2008, with every cycle.
- Rate odds for all ten central banks, side by side.
- Put these odds on your own site, free.
ECB rate odds: questions
What are the odds of a ECB rate hike in December 2026?
At the Dec 17, 2026 meeting: hold 75%, hike 24%, cut 1%. By Oct 28, 2027, a 41% chance the rate is below today's 2.50% and 47% that it is above. No consensus yet: the odds come from the run. These are odds from the record of past decisions, not a promise.
Are these the market's odds?
No. Market odds come from futures prices, which are licensed. These come from how often decisions like this one went each way since 2008, counted with fixed rules, and the page shows how right they have been.
How accurate are the ECB odds?
With the consensus out, the likeliest move came true 98.9% of the time over 87 ECB decisions since 2010. Weeks before, from the run alone, 79.4% over 155. Three meetings ahead the odds are only a little better than guessing.
When is the next ECB decision?
Dec 17, 2026 at 2:15 PM Frankfurt, Frankfurt time.
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