ECB Interest Rate Decision, December 2026
The Governing Council announces on Thursday, December 17, 2026 at 2:15 PM Frankfurt. There is no consensus figure yet.
When is the ECB decision?
- Frankfurt
- Thu, Dec 17 · 2:15 PM Frankfurt
- New York
- Thu, Dec 17 · 8:15 AM EST
- London
- Thu, Dec 17 · 1:15 PM London
- Tokyo
- Thu, Dec 17 · 10:15 PM Tokyo
- UTC
- Thu, Dec 17 · 1:15 PM UTC
- Your time
- 1:15 PM UTC
What is expected
- Consensus
- Not yet
- Previous
- —
- Reading
- No consensus yet
An expected move is already in the price: only the difference between the decision and the expectation tends to move it.
What will the ECB do?
The split shows once you vote. Voting closes at the announcement, in 49d 14h.
EUR/USD levels to watch before the ECB decision
Drawn from real 15-minute candles: the nearest standing high and low, where stops rest. A: the spike runs the high, closes back, and the low is next. B: the mirror. Where to look, not a promise: some days one plays and some days neither does. Vote on which one plays: it is settled on the 15-minute candles of the 24 hours after the announcement.
Which play happens on EUR/USD?
The split shows once you vote. Voting closes at the announcement, in 49d 14h.
Last price 1.11507. Levels are as of the candle that closed Oct 28, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC UTC; they are not updated until the site is rebuilt, and the vote is settled on the map as it stands at the announcement. This is where to look, not advice.
How the last ECB decisions moved EUR/USD
Across 14 measured ECB decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 6 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 15 pips.
| Date | Decision | First side | Closed back | After 60 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | ▲ hike 2.50% | ▼ 3.3 pips | 5 min | −15 pips |
| Jul 23, 2026 | ■ hold 2.25% | ▼ 2.4 pips | 15 min | −26 pips |
| Jun 11, 2026 | ▲ hike 2.25% | ▼ 16 pips | 35 min | −7.9 pips |
| Apr 30, 2026 | ■ hold 2.00% | ▼ 8.1 pips | 10 min | −11 pips |
| Mar 19, 2026 | ■ hold 2.00% | ▲ 8.4 pips | 10 min | +25 pips |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ■ hold 2.00% | ▲ 17 pips | No | +27 pips |
Up and down are the pair EUR/USD. A hawkish surprise (a bigger hike, a smaller cut, a hold when a cut was expected) tends to push EUR/USD up, because EUR is its first currency; a dovish one pushes it down.
ECB December 2026 decision: questions
What time is the ECB interest rate decision on Dec 17, 2026?
2:15 PM Frankfurt Frankfurt time on Thursday, December 17, 2026, which is 8:15 AM EST in New York and 1:15 PM London in London. The press conference follows at 2:45 PM Frankfurt.
What is expected from the ECB in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet. The rate now is —.
How does the ECB decision move EUR/USD, and what should I watch?
Across 14 measured ECB decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 10 (71%), and in 6 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 4 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 15 pips. The deposit facility rate is the one that steers euro money markets; the main refinancing rate moves with it. Past reactions describe what happened, not what will.
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