The December 2023 figures
Released Wednesday, January 17, 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, as first published.
| Measure | December 2023 | November 2023 | December 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail sales, a month | +0.6% | +0.3% | −1.1% |
| Retail sales, a year | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% |
| Excluding autos, a month | +0.4% | +0.2% | −1.1% |
| Control group, a month | +0.8% | +0.4% | −0.7% |
As first published: later reports revise these figures. This compares with earlier reports, not with what economists expected.
What the dollar did in the hour after
Pips against the last price before the release (8:30 AM EST), from one-minute candles. A negative EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD or NZD/USD move, or a positive USD/JPY, USD/CHF or USD/CAD move, is a higher dollar.
| Pair | 1 min | 5 min | 15 min | 60 min | Furthest up, 15 min | Furthest down, 15 min | At 15 minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | −16.3 | −9.0 | −11.5 | −5.7 | 0.0 | −18.9 | dollar higher |
| GBP/USD | −16.2 | −9.2 | −8.8 | −12.6 | +0.4 | −19.4 | dollar higher |
| USD/JPY | +21.4 | +18.2 | +21.2 | +21.2 | +26.0 | −0.1 | dollar higher |
| USD/CHF | +13.1 | +9.6 | +19.8 | +11.3 | +19.8 | +1.7 | dollar higher |
| AUD/USD | −8.1 | −3.9 | −5.3 | −14.8 | +0.2 | −12.9 | dollar higher |
| USD/CAD | +10.4 | +8.9 | +10.6 | +21.7 | +15.1 | 0.0 | dollar higher |
| NZD/USD | −8.6 | −4.2 | −5.9 | −15.1 | +0.5 | −12.5 | dollar higher |
Past reactions describe what happened; they are not a forecast. All 46 reports since Jan 18, 2023 are compared on the retail sales report page.
What it means for the next Fed decision
The Fed decides next on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST. Data like this retail sales report is part of what the committee weighs: see the Fed rate forecast for the dots against today’s rate.
The odds from the record for that meeting: hold 62%. They are counted from every Fed decision since 2008 by fixed rules, not from markets and not from this report: how they are made.
More
The next retail sales release, for October 2026, is due on Tuesday, November 17, 2026. Also: the US CPI report, the jobs report, PCE inflation, retail sales and GDP.
← November 2023 January 2024 →
Questions
What was the December 2023 retail sales report?
The December 2023 retail sales report showed US retail sales up +0.6% on the month, against +0.3% in the November 2023 report as first published, and 5.6% on the year. Excluding autos sales were +0.4%, and the control group, which feeds GDP, +0.8%.
How did the dollar react to the December 2023 retail sales report?
Measured on one-minute candles against the last price before the release, EUR/USD moved −16.3 pips in one minute, −9.0 in five, −11.5 in fifteen and −5.7 in sixty (a negative move is a higher dollar). In the first 15 minutes it went as far as 0.0 up and −18.9 down. Past reactions describe what happened, not what will.
Was it higher or lower than the report before?
The headline figure, retail sales, a month, was +0.6%, higher than +0.3% in the November 2023 report. That compares with the report before, not with what economists expected, which this site does not publish.
Where do the figures come from?
U.S. Census Bureau, as first published, read automatically and never typed by hand. Reports are later revised, so a later figure for the same month can differ; check the agency’s own site.