The August 2025 figures
Released Tuesday, September 16, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, as first published.
| Measure | August 2025 | July 2025 | August 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail sales, a month | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.1% |
| Retail sales, a year | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Excluding autos, a month | +0.7% | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| Control group, a month | +0.7% | +0.5% | +0.3% |
As first published: later reports revise these figures. This compares with earlier reports, not with what economists expected.
What the dollar did in the hour after
Pips against the last price before the release (8:30 AM EDT), from one-minute candles. A negative EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD or NZD/USD move, or a positive USD/JPY, USD/CHF or USD/CAD move, is a higher dollar.
| Pair | 1 min | 5 min | 15 min | 60 min | Furthest up, 15 min | Furthest down, 15 min | At 15 minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | −1.5 | −4.9 | −2.7 | +20.7 | +6.9 | −10.8 | dollar higher |
| GBP/USD | −6.6 | −8.0 | −5.6 | +14.8 | +1.5 | −14.1 | dollar higher |
| USD/JPY | +8.0 | +11.1 | +10.4 | −13.9 | +21.0 | −3.2 | dollar higher |
| USD/CHF | +2.7 | +6.7 | +2.8 | −15.0 | +11.0 | −1.0 | dollar higher |
| AUD/USD | −2.4 | −2.1 | −3.6 | +6.9 | +3.4 | −7.0 | dollar higher |
| USD/CAD | +6.1 | +7.6 | +9.2 | −12.1 | +12.2 | −2.1 | dollar higher |
| NZD/USD | −2.5 | −4.4 | −5.3 | +7.7 | +1.3 | −7.5 | dollar higher |
Past reactions describe what happened; they are not a forecast. All 46 reports since Jan 18, 2023 are compared on the retail sales report page.
What it means for the next Fed decision
The Fed decides next on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST. Data like this retail sales report is part of what the committee weighs: see the Fed rate forecast for the dots against today’s rate.
The odds from the record for that meeting: hold 62%. They are counted from every Fed decision since 2008 by fixed rules, not from markets and not from this report: how they are made.
More
The next retail sales release, for October 2026, is due on Tuesday, November 17, 2026. Also: the US CPI report, the jobs report, PCE inflation, retail sales and GDP.
Questions
What was the August 2025 retail sales report?
The August 2025 retail sales report showed US retail sales up +0.6% on the month, against +0.5% in the July 2025 report as first published, and 5.0% on the year. Excluding autos sales were +0.7%, and the control group, which feeds GDP, +0.7%.
How did the dollar react to the August 2025 retail sales report?
Measured on one-minute candles against the last price before the release, EUR/USD moved −1.5 pips in one minute, −4.9 in five, −2.7 in fifteen and +20.7 in sixty (a negative move is a higher dollar). In the first 15 minutes it went as far as +6.9 up and −10.8 down. Past reactions describe what happened, not what will.
Was it higher or lower than the report before?
The headline figure, retail sales, a month, was +0.6%, higher than +0.5% in the July 2025 report. That compares with the report before, not with what economists expected, which this site does not publish.
Where do the figures come from?
U.S. Census Bureau, as first published, read automatically and never typed by hand. Reports are later revised, so a later figure for the same month can differ; check the agency’s own site.