The September 2024 figures
Released Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, as first published.
| Measure | September 2024 | August 2024 | September 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCE price index, a year | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% |
| PCE price index, a month | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.4% |
| Core PCE, a year | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% |
| Core PCE, a month | +0.3% | +0.1% | +0.3% |
| Personal spending, a month | +0.5% | +0.2% | +0.7% |
| Personal income, a month | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
As first published: later reports revise these figures. This compares with earlier reports, not with what economists expected.
What the dollar did in the hour after
Pips against the last price before the release (8:30 AM EDT), from one-minute candles. A negative EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD or NZD/USD move, or a positive USD/JPY, USD/CHF or USD/CAD move, is a higher dollar.
| Pair | 1 min | 5 min | 15 min | 60 min | Furthest up, 15 min | Furthest down, 15 min | At 15 minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | −4.0 | +7.9 | +6.6 | +6.6 | +13.0 | −8.8 | dollar lower |
| GBP/USD | −8.0 | +3.9 | −2.1 | +8.9 | +11.9 | −10.5 | dollar higher |
| USD/JPY | +15.8 | −12.5 | −5.6 | +1.7 | +22.4 | −19.2 | dollar lower |
| USD/CHF | +7.3 | −4.4 | +0.9 | −6.4 | +10.0 | −7.9 | dollar higher |
| AUD/USD | −4.1 | +0.3 | +2.4 | −0.3 | +5.9 | −6.4 | dollar lower |
| USD/CAD | +6.2 | +10.1 | +6.1 | −9.0 | +11.3 | −3.3 | dollar higher |
| NZD/USD | −4.0 | +2.7 | +5.4 | −2.1 | +9.4 | −7.6 | dollar lower |
Past reactions describe what happened; they are not a forecast. All 45 reports since Jan 27, 2023 are compared on the PCE inflation report page.
What it means for the next Fed decision
The Fed decides next on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST. Data like this PCE inflation report is part of what the committee weighs: see the Fed rate forecast for the dots against today’s rate.
The odds from the record for that meeting: hold 62%. They are counted from every Fed decision since 2008 by fixed rules, not from markets and not from this report: how they are made.
More
The next PCE inflation release, for October 2026, is due on Wednesday, November 25, 2026. Also: the US CPI report, the jobs report, PCE inflation, retail sales and GDP.
Questions
What was the September 2024 PCE inflation report?
The September 2024 personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report showed the PCE price index up 2.1% on the year (2.2% in the August 2024 report) and +0.2% on the month. The core index, excluding food and energy, which the Fed watches most closely, was up 2.7% on the year and +0.3% on the month. Personal spending was +0.5% and personal income +0.3%.
How did the dollar react to the September 2024 PCE inflation report?
Measured on one-minute candles against the last price before the release, EUR/USD moved −4.0 pips in one minute, +7.9 in five, +6.6 in fifteen and +6.6 in sixty (a negative move is a higher dollar). In the first 15 minutes it went as far as +13.0 up and −8.8 down. Past reactions describe what happened, not what will.
Was it higher or lower than the report before?
The headline figure, pce price index, a year, was 2.1%, lower than 2.2% in the August 2024 report. That compares with the report before, not with what economists expected, which this site does not publish.
Where do the figures come from?
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, as first published, read automatically and never typed by hand. Reports are later revised, so a later figure for the same month can differ; check the agency’s own site.