Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet for the Dec 9, 2026 decision. The rate is 3.75%–4.00%, and the last move was +25 bp on Sep 16, 2026.
Figures as of Nov 3, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC.
What the data says
The latest move was a single rise of 25 bp on Sep 16, 2026.
At its latest decision, on Oct 28, 2026, the Fed: held at 3.75%–4.00%, as expected.
Since 2008 the Fed matched the consensus in 140 of the 145 decisions the calendar has one for, came out above it in 1 and below it in 4. That is a record of the consensus. The Fed rate odds turn the same record into the chance of each move at each meeting, with how right they have been.
Read the full preview on the Fed December 2026 decision page, the Fed rate history since 2008, or every central bank's rate today.
The next Fed decisions
| Date | Time | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2026 | 2:00 PM EST | No consensus yet |
| Jan 27, 2027 | 2:00 PM EST | No consensus yet |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 2:00 PM EDT | No consensus yet |
| Apr 28, 2027 | 2:00 PM EDT | No consensus yet |
The last 8 Fed decisions against the consensus
| Date | Decision | Against expected |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | hold 3.75%–4.00% | as expected |
| Sep 16, 2026 | hike 3.75%–4.00% | as expected |
| Jul 29, 2026 | hold 3.50%–3.75% | as expected |
| Jun 17, 2026 | hold 3.50%–3.75% | as expected |
| Apr 29, 2026 | hold 3.50%–3.75% | as expected |
| Mar 18, 2026 | hold 3.50%–3.75% | as expected |
| Jan 28, 2026 | hold 3.50%–3.75% | as expected |
| Dec 10, 2025 | cut 3.50%–3.75% | as expected |
Fed rates: questions
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet for the Dec 9, 2026 decision. The rate is 3.75%–4.00%, and the last move was +25 bp on Sep 16, 2026. This is what economists expect, not a promise of what the bank will do.
Will the Fed cut rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet. The last move was raised 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep 16, 2026.
When is the next Fed decision?
Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST. The press conference follows at 2:30 PM EST.
How often is the consensus right about the Fed?
Since 2008 the Fed matched the consensus in 140 of the 145 decisions the calendar has one for, came out above it in 1 and below it in 4. Agreement on the number does not say how price reacts: an expected move is usually already in the price.
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