The March 2025 figures
| Measure | March 2025 | February 2025 | March 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI, a year | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% |
| CPI, a month | −0.1% | +0.2% | +0.4% |
| Core CPI, a year | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% |
| Core CPI, a month | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.4% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core is consumer prices excluding food and energy. The monthly change is as first published; the yearly change is from the not seasonally adjusted index. This compares with earlier months, not with what economists expected.
What the dollar did in the hour after
Pips against the last price before the release (8:30 AM EDT), from one-minute candles. A negative EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD or NZD/USD move, or a positive USD/JPY, USD/CHF or USD/CAD move, is a higher dollar.
| Pair | 1 min | 5 min | 15 min | 60 min | Furthest up, 15 min | Furthest down, 15 min | At 15 minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | +27.4 | +23.9 | +11.9 | +18.2 | +31.8 | 0.0 | dollar lower |
| GBP/USD | +39.6 | +32.9 | +23.0 | −5.5 | +41.8 | 0.0 | dollar lower |
| USD/JPY | −31.4 | −21.4 | −21.7 | −24.6 | 0.0 | −50.0 | dollar lower |
| USD/CHF | −6.4 | −4.5 | +6.3 | +24.6 | +10.5 | −18.2 | dollar higher |
| AUD/USD | +15.7 | +14.0 | −8.1 | +5.1 | +19.4 | −11.5 | dollar higher |
| USD/CAD | −9.5 | −3.7 | +7.9 | −5.4 | +12.9 | −14.8 | dollar higher |
| NZD/USD | +12.7 | +12.2 | −5.3 | +4.8 | +25.2 | −7.8 | dollar higher |
Past reactions describe what happened; they are not a forecast. How all 45 reports since Jan 12, 2023 compare is on the CPI report page.
What it means for the next Fed decision
The Fed decides next on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST. Data like this CPI report is part of what the committee weighs: see the Fed rate forecast for the dots against today’s rate.
The odds from the record for that meeting: hold 62%. They are counted from every Fed decision since 2008 by fixed rules, not from markets and not from this report: how they are made.
More
The next CPI report, for November 2026, is due on Thursday, December 10, 2026. The Fed’s decisions follow the inflation data: see the next Fed interest rate decision, Fed rate cuts since 2008 and basis points to percent.
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Questions
What was the CPI for March 2025?
The March 2025 consumer price index report, released Thursday, April 10, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT, showed US consumer prices up 2.4% a year, down from 2.8%, −0.1% on the month. Excluding food and energy (core), prices were up 2.8% a year and +0.1% on the month.
How did the dollar react to the March 2025 CPI?
Measured on one-minute candles against the last price before the release, EUR/USD moved +27.4 pips in one minute, +23.9 in five, +11.9 in fifteen and +18.2 in sixty (a negative move is a higher dollar). In the first 15 minutes it went as far as +31.8 up and 0.0 down. Past reactions describe what happened, not what will.
Was the March 2025 CPI higher or lower than the month before?
The yearly rate was 2.4%, lower than 2.8% in the February 2025 report. That compares with the month before, not with what economists expected, which this site does not publish.
Where do the figures come from?
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, read automatically and never typed by hand. The monthly change is as first published; the yearly change is from the not seasonally adjusted index. Check it at bls.gov.