Will the RBA raise rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet for the Dec 8, 2026 decision. The rate is 4.85%, and the last move was +25 bp on Nov 3, 2026.
Figures as of Nov 3, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC.
What the data says
The latest run of moves was 5 rises totalling 125 bp, from Feb 3, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.
At its latest decision, on Nov 3, 2026, the RBA: raised 25 bp to 4.85%, as expected.
Since 2008 the RBA matched the consensus in 171 of the 197 decisions the calendar has one for, came out above it in 10 and below it in 16. That is a record of the consensus. The RBA rate odds turn the same record into the chance of each move at each meeting, with how right they have been.
Read the full preview on the RBA December 2026 decision page, the RBA rate history since 2008, or every central bank's rate today.
The next RBA decisions
| Date | Time | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2026 | 2:30 PM Sydney | No consensus yet |
| Feb 9, 2027 | 2:30 PM Sydney | No consensus yet |
| Mar 23, 2027 | 2:30 PM Sydney | No consensus yet |
| May 4, 2027 | 2:30 PM Sydney | No consensus yet |
The last 8 RBA decisions against the consensus
| Date | Decision | Against expected |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | hike 4.85% | as expected |
| Sep 29, 2026 | hike 4.60% | as expected |
| Aug 11, 2026 | hold 4.35% | as expected |
| Jun 16, 2026 | hold 4.35% | as expected |
| May 5, 2026 | hike 4.35% | as expected |
| Mar 17, 2026 | hike 4.10% | as expected |
| Feb 3, 2026 | hike 3.85% | as expected |
| Dec 9, 2025 | hold 3.60% | as expected |
RBA rates: questions
Will the RBA raise rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet for the Dec 8, 2026 decision. The rate is 4.85%, and the last move was +25 bp on Nov 3, 2026. This is what economists expect, not a promise of what the bank will do.
Will the RBA cut rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet. The last move was raised 25 bp to 4.85% on Nov 3, 2026.
When is the next RBA decision?
Tuesday, December 8, 2026 at 2:30 PM Sydney. The press conference follows at 3:30 PM Sydney.
How often is the consensus right about the RBA?
Since 2008 the RBA matched the consensus in 171 of the 197 decisions the calendar has one for, came out above it in 10 and below it in 16. Agreement on the number does not say how price reacts: an expected move is usually already in the price.
Learn the read behind every projection.
Forexia teaches the same read this site measures: where the stops rest before a release, the hunt, and the close back that says it is done. Courses, live signals for members, and a community of traders who chart the same way.