RBA Rate Hike Odds for December 2026
At the Dec 8, 2026 meeting: hike 66%, hold 34%, cut <1%. By Nov 2, 2027, a 10% chance the rate is below today's 4.85% and 81% that it is above.
Decision in 34d 19h
Figures as of Nov 3, 2026, 8:20 AM UTC. Not market odds and not advice: how they are made.
Where the RBA's rate could be after each meeting
Each cell is the chance the rate is there after that meeting, over every path the meetings before it could take. The outlined column is today's rate.
| Meeting | 4.60 or lower | 4.85today | 5.10 | 5.35 | 5.60 | 5.85 | 6.10 | 6.35 | 6.60 | 6.85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2026from the run | 34% | 66% | ||||||||
| Feb 9, 2027from the run | 26% | 30% | 44% | |||||||
| Mar 23, 2027from the run | 1% | 20% | 26% | 25% | 29% | |||||
| May 4, 2027from the run | 2% | 15% | 20% | 23% | 20% | 19% | ||||
| Jun 22, 2027from the run | 4% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 13% | |||
| Aug 10, 2027from the run | 6% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 17% | 12% | 9% | ||
| Sep 28, 2027from the run | 8% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 6% | |
| Nov 2, 2027from the run | 10% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 4% |
- Dec 8, 2026
- 5.10%66%
- 4.85% (today)34%
- Feb 9, 2027
- 5.35%44%
- 5.10%30%
- 4.85% (today)26%
- Mar 23, 2027
- 5.60%29%
- 5.10%26%
- 5.35%25%
- 4.85% (today)20%
- May 4, 2027
- 5.35%23%
- 5.60%20%
- 5.10%20%
- 5.85%19%
- Jun 22, 2027
- 5.60%20%
- 5.35%18%
- 5.10%16%
- 5.85%16%
- Aug 10, 2027
- 5.60%17%
- 5.85%17%
- 5.35%16%
- 5.10%14%
- Sep 28, 2027
- 5.60%15%
- 5.85%15%
- 5.35%14%
- 6.10%13%
- Nov 2, 2027
- 5.85%13%
- 5.60%13%
- 6.10%12%
- 5.35%11%
The RBA rate: two years behind, a year of odds ahead
| Meeting | Odds | Below today | Above today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2026from the run | Cut <1% Hold 34% Hike 66% | <1% | 66% |
| Feb 9, 2027from the run | Cut <1% Hold 48% Hike 52% | <1% | 74% |
| Mar 23, 2027from the run | Cut 1% Hold 54% Hike 45% | 1% | 80% |
| May 4, 2027from the run | Cut 2% Hold 57% Hike 41% | 2% | 82% |
| Jun 22, 2027from the run | Cut 4% Hold 59% Hike 37% | 4% | 83% |
| Aug 10, 2027from the run | Cut 5% Hold 60% Hike 35% | 6% | 83% |
| Sep 28, 2027from the run | Cut 7% Hold 61% Hike 32% | 8% | 82% |
| Nov 2, 2027from the run | Cut 8% Hold 62% Hike 29% | 10% | 81% |
How these odds are made
These are not market odds. Those come from futures prices, which are licensed, and they say what traders are paying for. These odds are a record: how often decisions like the next one have gone each way, counted from every decision of the ten banks since 2008. The rules are fixed:
- When economists' consensus is out (usually the week before), the odds are how often decisions with the same expected move went each way. It is the bank's own record, pulled toward all ten banks' while the bank has few such decisions (as if all ten banks' record were 12 more decisions of its own).
- Before then, how often the bank moved after the same run: which way its last move went, and how many holds since (none, 1–2, 3–5, 6 or more).
- Meetings further ahead follow every path the earlier meetings could take. A move is the consensus's size where it gives one, else the bank's usual step: the middle size of its last six moves.
- Nothing is tuned on the record. Each decision since 2010 is scored with only the decisions before it.
What it does not know: what the bank has said, the latest inflation or jobs figures, or anything in the news. A bank that has held for a year and then signals a cut gets no credit for the signal until the consensus moves. Read the odds beside the bank's own words, not instead of them. The whole test, bank by bank: can central bank decisions be predicted?
How the odds did for the RBA, 2010 to 2026
| Decisions | Likeliest came true | Brier score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| With the consensus out | 176 | 90.9% | 0.168 |
| The consensus alone | 176 | 90.9% | 0.182 |
| Before the consensus (one meeting ahead) | 178 | 77.5% | 0.358 |
| 3 meetings ahead | 178 | 74.7% | 0.398 |
| Guessing each move's usual share | 178 | — | 0.396 |
The Brier score is the squared distance between the odds and what happened: 0 is perfect, and lower is better. With the consensus out, the odds score a little better than the consensus taken as certain: they mostly agree with it, and only add how often it has been wrong. 3 meetings out they beat guessing by nothing: the far columns are the weak part.
Do the odds mean what they say?
A 30% chance should come true about 30% of the time. The chart groups every forecast by what it said and shows how often that happened. Dots on the line are honest; above it, the odds said too little; below it, too much.
When the odds were 90% or more sure before the consensus was out, they were right 47 times in 53 (89%). With the consensus out: 121 in 130.
When the consensus was wrong about the RBA
The latest 8 of the 16 decisions since 2010 that went another way than economists expected, and what these odds gave the move that happened.
| Decision | Expected | Happened | The odds gave it |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA, Jul 8, 2025 | cut | hold to 3.85% | 15% |
| RBA, Aug 1, 2023 | hike | hold | 10% |
| RBA, Jul 4, 2023 | hike | hold | 7% |
| RBA, Jun 6, 2023 | hold | hike | 2% |
| RBA, May 2, 2023 | hold | hike | 1% |
| RBA, Mar 3, 2020 | hold | cut | 5% |
| RBA, May 3, 2016 | hold | cut | 7% |
| RBA, Mar 3, 2015 | cut | hold | 18% |
More on the RBA
- The RBA December 2026 decision: time, consensus and the pair's projection.
- Will the RBA raise or cut rates? What economists expect of the RBA.
- RBA rate history since 2008, with every cycle.
- Rate odds for all ten central banks, side by side.
- Put these odds on your own site, free.
RBA rate odds: questions
What are the odds of a RBA rate hike in December 2026?
At the Dec 8, 2026 meeting: hike 66%, hold 34%, cut <1%. By Nov 2, 2027, a 10% chance the rate is below today's 4.85% and 81% that it is above. No consensus yet: the odds come from the run. These are odds from the record of past decisions, not a promise.
Are these the market's odds?
No. Market odds come from futures prices, which are licensed. These come from how often decisions like this one went each way since 2008, counted with fixed rules, and the page shows how right they have been.
How accurate are the RBA odds?
With the consensus out, the likeliest move came true 90.9% of the time over 176 RBA decisions since 2010. Weeks before, from the run alone, 77.5% over 178. Three meetings ahead the odds are only a little better than guessing.
When is the next RBA decision?
Dec 8, 2026 at 2:30 PM Sydney, Sydney time.
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