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Rate cut odds for every central bank
The chance of a cut, a hold or a hike at each central bank's next meeting, worked out from every decision since 2008. Next is the Riksbank, Nov 4, 2026: hike 92%.
Figures as of Nov 3, 2026, 8:20 AM UTC. Not market odds and not advice: how they are made.
The odds of each bank's next decision
Soonest first. Each card opens the bank's meetings for the year ahead.
How these odds are made
These are not market odds. Those come from futures prices, which are licensed, and they say what traders are paying for. These odds are a record: how often decisions like the next one have gone each way, counted from every decision of the ten banks since 2008. The rules are fixed:
- When economists' consensus is out (usually the week before), the odds are how often decisions with the same expected move went each way. It is the bank's own record, pulled toward all ten banks' while the bank has few such decisions (as if all ten banks' record were 12 more decisions of its own).
- Before then, how often the bank moved after the same run: which way its last move went, and how many holds since (none, 1–2, 3–5, 6 or more).
- Meetings further ahead follow every path the earlier meetings could take. A move is the consensus's size where it gives one, else the bank's usual step: the middle size of its last six moves.
- Nothing is tuned on the record. Each decision since 2010 is scored with only the decisions before it.
What it does not know: what the bank has said, the latest inflation or jobs figures, or anything in the news. A bank that has held for a year and then signals a cut gets no credit for the signal until the consensus moves. Read the odds beside the bank's own words, not instead of them. The whole test, bank by bank: can central bank decisions be predicted?
How the odds did for the ten banks, 2010 to 2026
| Decisions | Likeliest came true | Brier score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| With the consensus out | 1112 | 96.1% | 0.075 |
| The consensus alone | 1112 | 96.1% | 0.077 |
| Before the consensus (one meeting ahead) | 1324 | 80.1% | 0.288 |
| 3 meetings ahead | 1319 | 77.7% | 0.339 |
| Guessing each move's usual share | 1324 | — | 0.362 |
The Brier score is the squared distance between the odds and what happened: 0 is perfect, and lower is better. With the consensus out, the odds score a little better than the consensus taken as certain: they mostly agree with it, and only add how often it has been wrong. 3 meetings out they beat guessing by 6%: the far columns are the weak part.
Do the odds mean what they say?
A 30% chance should come true about 30% of the time. The chart groups every forecast by what it said and shows how often that happened. Dots on the line are honest; above it, the odds said too little; below it, too much.
When the odds were 90% or more sure before the consensus was out, they were right 500 times in 541 (92%). With the consensus out: 979 in 1013.
When the consensus was wrong
The latest 12 of the 43 decisions since 2010 that went another way than economists expected, and what these odds gave the move that happened.
| Decision | Expected | Happened | The odds gave it |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBNZ, Oct 28, 2026 | hike | hold to 2.75% | 5% |
| Norges Bank, May 7, 2026 | hold | hike to 4.25% | 2% |
| Riksbank, Sep 23, 2025 | hold | cut to 1.75% | 1% |
| RBA, Jul 8, 2025 | cut | hold to 3.85% | 15% |
| Norges Bank, Jun 19, 2025 | hold | cut to 4.25% | 5% |
| RBNZ, Aug 14, 2024 | hold | cut to 5.25% | 3% |
| BoJ, Jul 31, 2024 | cut | hike to 0.25% | 1% |
| SNB, Mar 21, 2024 | hold | cut to 1.50% | <1% |
| Norges Bank, Dec 14, 2023 | hold | hike | <1% |
| Riksbank, Nov 23, 2023 | hike | hold | 3% |
| BoE, Sep 21, 2023 | hike | hold | 2% |
| SNB, Sep 21, 2023 | hike | hold | 3% |
Rate odds: questions
What are rate cut odds?
The chance a central bank cuts its rate at a meeting. Usually they are read from futures prices. Here they come from the record: how often decisions like the next one went each way since 2008, with fixed rules and every past forecast scored.
Which central bank is most likely to move next?
The Riksbank (hike 92%, Nov 4, 2026); The BoE (hike 94%, Nov 5, 2026); The RBA (hike 66%, Dec 8, 2026); The BoC (hike 61%, Dec 9, 2026).
How right have these odds been?
Across 1112 decisions since 2010 with the consensus out, the likeliest move came true 96.1% of the time. Before the consensus, 80.1% over 1324. The calibration chart below shows whether a 30% really meant 30%.
Want these on your own site? The odds widget is free.
How to cite
The figures on this page are free to quote, in an article, a paper, a video or an AI answer, with a link to this page:
InterestRateDecision.com, "Rate cut odds for every central bank", updated Nov 3, 2026, https://interestratedecision.com/rate-odds/
The data behind them is free to download as CSV and JSON. Questions about the method: the editor.
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