What the Fed does set
The Fed sets a target range for the federal funds rate: what banks charge each other for overnight loans. It is 3.75%–4.00% now, after a hike of 25 basis points on Sep 16, 2026. Every other rate in the economy is set by someone else, but many are priced with this one in mind.
Fixed-rate mortgages: priced from the bond market
A fixed-rate mortgage is funded by selling bonds to investors for many years, so its rate follows the yields on long-term bonds, such as the 10-year US Treasury, plus the lender’s margin and costs. Those yields move on what investors expect inflation and the Fed to do over the years ahead.
That is why mortgage rates often move before a Fed meeting, when the market starts to expect the decision, and why they can move one way on the day the Fed moves the other. A fixed rate you already have does not change at all when the Fed moves.
Adjustable-rate loans and credit lines follow the Fed more closely
An adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) or a home equity line resets from an index, often the prime rate or SOFR, which move with the Fed’s rate. If yours is one of these, a Fed change reaches you at your next reset, up to the cap in your agreement.
As an example, a variable-rate loan of 300,000 over 25 years at 6.00% (two points above the Fed's rate) costs about 1,933 a month. If the lender passed on a 25 basis point cut in full, it would cost about 1,887: 46 less a month. Try your own numbers in the rate cut calculator.
How far the Fed has moved, and what it means
The Fed's biggest hiking cycle since 2008 ran from Mar 16, 2022 to Jul 26, 2023: 525 basis points, from 0.00%–0.25% to 5.25%–5.50%. Variable-rate borrowers felt it within months; people with fixed-rate loans felt it only if they had to refinance or borrow new money.
In short
The Fed’s rate is one input to a mortgage rate, not the rate. For a fixed rate, watch the bond market and the lender’s offers; for a variable rate, watch the Fed. This is general information, not advice. Check your own loan or card agreement for how and when your rate changes.
More explainers
- Do Fed rate cuts lower credit card rates?
- Fed funds rate vs prime rate: what is the difference?
- What happens when the Fed raises or cuts rates
- The rate cut calculator
Questions
Does a Fed rate cut lower mortgage rates?
Not directly. A cut lowers variable and adjustable rates at their next reset. Fixed rates follow bond yields, which often move before the cut, when it is expected, so a cut that was already expected can leave fixed rates unchanged.
Why did mortgage rates rise when the Fed cut?
Because a fixed mortgage rate follows long-term bond yields, which can rise even as the Fed cuts, for example if investors expect more inflation or more government borrowing.
What is the Fed rate now?
3.75%–4.00%, the federal funds target range; the last change was a hike of 25 basis points on Sep 16, 2026. The Fed page has the next decision.
Should I refinance because the Fed moved?
This site does not give advice. A refinance depends on your rate, the lender’s offers and the costs. The Fed’s move is one thing to weigh, not a signal on its own.