The federal funds rate is 3.75%–4.00% after the decision of Oct 28, 2026. The Fed's latest hiking cycle began on Sep 16, 2026 and has made 1 move, +25 bp in all. The next decision is on Wednesday, December 9, 2026.
From the Fed's rate to everyone else's
- Banks. The federal funds rate is what banks charge each other overnight. The prime rate, which banks set at three points above the top of the Fed's range by long convention, moves the same day.
- Loans. Credit cards, adjustable-rate mortgages, home equity lines and many business loans are priced off the prime rate or a short-term rate, so they follow within a billing cycle or two.
- Savings. Money market funds and savings accounts pay more after a hike and less after a cut, money market funds within days.
- Bonds and fixed mortgages. Long-term yields move on the whole expected path of rates, so a thirty-year mortgage often moves before the Fed does.
- The economy. Dearer credit slows spending and hiring over months, and with them prices. That lag is why the Fed moves before inflation has come down, and why it cuts before a slowdown is plain.
- The dollar. A Fed raising rates faster than other banks makes dollars pay more to hold, which tends to lift the dollar over time.
The Fed's hiking and cutting cycles since 2008
The steepest hiking cycle in the period ran from Mar 16, 2022 to Jul 26, 2023: 11 hikes, +525 bp, from 0.00%–0.25% to 5.25%–5.50%. The deepest cutting cycle ran from Jan 22, 2008 to Dec 16, 2008: 7 cuts, −400 bp, to 0.00%–0.25%.
| Cycle | From | To | Moves | In all | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ Raising | Sep 16, 2026 | one move | 1 | +25 bp | 3.50%–3.75% → 3.75%–4.00% |
| ▼ Cutting | Sep 18, 2024 | Dec 10, 2025 | 6 | −175 bp | 5.25%–5.50% → 3.50%–3.75% |
| ▲ Raising | Mar 16, 2022 | Jul 26, 2023 | 11 | +525 bp | 0.00%–0.25% → 5.25%–5.50% |
| ▼ Cutting | Jul 31, 2019 | Mar 15, 2020 | 5 | −225 bp | 2.25%–2.50% → 0.00%–0.25% |
| ▲ Raising | Dec 16, 2015 | Dec 19, 2018 | 9 | +225 bp | 0.00%–0.25% → 2.25%–2.50% |
| ▼ Cutting | Jan 22, 2008 | Dec 16, 2008 | 7 | −400 bp | 4.25% → 0.00%–0.25% |
Every decision, year by year, with a CSV: Fed funds rate history.
The dollar on the day the Fed decides
This site measures each Fed decision since January 2025 on one-minute EUR/USD candles. Across 14, the median spike in the first 15 minutes was 26 pips, and in 10 the first spike closed back inside the range of the hour before within 60 minutes. Split by what the Fed did, with "stronger" meaning the dollar one hour after the 2:00 pm statement:
| Fed decision | Measured | Dollar stronger after 1 h | Dollar weaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cut | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Hold | 10 | 7 | 3 |
Few decisions, so no rule: they count what happened. Up and down on EUR/USD are turned into the dollar's terms. Each decision's minutes are on its own page from the Fed page.
What the Fed says comes next
At its Sep 16, 2026 meeting the median official saw the rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 and 4.1% at the end of 2027. How those medians have moved, and how far off they have been, is on the Fed dot plot page. The next decision is on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST. Its preview, with the EUR/USD levels to watch.
Questions
What happens when the Fed raises interest rates?
Borrowing gets dearer: the banks' prime rate follows the Fed within days, and with it credit cards, adjustable loans and many business loans. Savings and money market funds pay more. Spending and hiring slow over the following months, which is the point: it brings inflation down.
What happens when the Fed cuts interest rates?
The reverse: cheaper borrowing for variable-rate loans, lower returns on cash, and support for spending and jobs. It takes months to work through the economy.
What happens to mortgages when the Fed changes rates?
Adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity lines follow the Fed's rate closely. Thirty-year fixed mortgages follow long-term Treasury yields, which move on what the market expects the Fed to do over years, so they can move before the Fed does, or not at all.
Does the dollar go up when the Fed raises rates?
Over months, a Fed raising rates faster than other banks tends to lift the dollar. On the day, it depends on the surprise. On the Fed decisions measured here since January 2025, the dollar was stronger against the euro one hour later after 1 of 1 hike, 2 of 3 cuts and 7 of 10 holds.
How often does the Fed change interest rates?
The FOMC meets eight times a year. Of its 154 decisions listed since 2008, 21 were hikes and 18 cuts; the rest held.
When is the next Fed decision?
Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST.