8 central bank decisions in September 2026: 5 hikes and 3 holds. 8 of 8 came out exactly as the consensus expected. Here is each one, and what its currency pair did in the hour after.
Published
Decisions8September 2026, all eight banks
Moves55 hikes and 3 holds
As expected8 / 8results that matched the consensus
Closed back3 / 8first spikes back inside within the hour
Each decision is measured on its own currency pair, one-minute candles, with the same rules every time: the high and low of the hour before the announcement, the
first spike out of it, and whether a five-minute candle closed back inside within the hour. The rules are on the method page.
"Hour later" is the pair's move from the last price before the announcement; "back in" is the minutes until a five-minute candle closed back inside the hour-before range.
The biggest reaction: BoE, Sep 17, 2026
The largest first move of the month followed the Bank of England: 44 pips on GBP/USD within 15 minutes of
the 12:00 PM London announcement. It held at 3.75%, as expected. The hour before ranged
12 pips, and the first spike ran below the hour-before range by 44 pips and held: no five-minute close back inside within the hour.
Every one of the 8 decisions with a consensus came out exactly as expected. The number itself was not the news: what moved price on each was the
statement, the guidance and the orders resting around the hour before. That is the usual case: of the 106 decisions measured since
Jan 24, 2025 that had a consensus, 103 matched it.
The hunt and the close back
Of the 8 decisions measured this month, the first spike left the hour-before range within 30 minutes in 8, closed back inside within the hour in
3, and went on to take the other side of the range within four hours in 3.
Across all 106 decisions measured since Jan 24, 2025, 64% closed back. One month is a small sample; the
guide to trading rate decisions has the read and the full counts, including the times it did not work.
Forexia teaches the same read this site measures: where the stops rest before a release, the hunt, and the close back that says it is done. Courses, live signals for members, and a community of traders who chart the same way.