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Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, January 2025

The Bank of Canada lowered the overnight rate target 25 bp to 3.00% on January 29, 2025, as expected.

Decision3.00%▼ cut −25 bp
Against expectedAs expectedexpected 3.00%
Previous3.25%overnight rate target
USD/CAD one hour later +0.1 pips from the last price before
The result

What the BoC decided in January 2025

The move −25 bp Cut 25 bp to 3.00%, from 3.25%.
Against expected No surprise Economists expected: cut 25 bp to 3.00%. The decision was as expected.
Timing 9:45 AM EST Wednesday, January 29, 2025; press conference at 10:30 AM EST.
What price did

USD/CAD after the BoC decision, minute by minute

One-minute candles, Ottawa time. The box is the hour before the announcement. How we measure.

USD/CAD one-minute chart around the Bank of Canada decision of Jan 29, 2025 The hour before the 09:45 announcement ranged 35 pips. The first spike went below it by 15 pips, and a five-minute candle closed back inside after 10 minutes. 1.442 1.443 1.444 1.445 1.446 1.447 09:00 09:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 THE HOUR BEFORE BoC 09:45 PRESS CONF. Spike 1.44214 · 15 pips past the hour's low Closed back inside · 10 min
  1. The hour beforeUSD/CAD ranged 35 pips, from 1.44364 to 1.44710, and was at 1.44381 at the announcement.
  2. The first spike After 0 minutes price went through the hour's low and ran 15 pips past it.
  3. The close back A five-minute candle closed back inside the range after 10 minutes.
  4. The other side Price did not trade through the opposite edge within four hours.
  5. The moves From the last price before the announcement: +2.1 pips at 15 minutes, +0.1 pips at one hour, −15 pips at four hours.
For context

Across 15 measured BoC decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 12 (80%), and in 6 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 3 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 12 pips.

This decision is one of the closed-back cases. Counts include the decisions where it did not close back. All BoC dates · BoC overview.

Questions

BoC January 2025 decision: questions

What time was the BoC interest rate decision on Jan 29, 2025?

It was announced at 9:45 AM EST (9:45 AM EST New York, 2:45 PM London London), with the press conference at 10:30 AM EST.

What did the BoC decide in January 2025?

Cut 25 bp to 3.00% (previous 3.25%). Economists expected: cut 25 bp to 3.00%, so the decision was as expected.

How did USD/CAD react to the BoC decision in January 2025?

On one-minute candles: the hour before ranged 35 pips; the first spike went below it by 15 pips; a five-minute candle closed back inside after 10 minutes; after one hour USD/CAD was +0.1 pips from its pre-announcement price.

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