Will the Bank of Japan raise rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet for the Dec 18, 2026 decision. The rate is 1.25%, and the last move was +25 bp on Sep 18, 2026.
Figures as of Nov 3, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC.
What the data says
The latest run of moves was 6 rises totalling 135 bp, from Mar 19, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026.
At its latest decision, on Oct 30, 2026, the BoJ: held at 1.25%, as expected.
Since 2008 the BoJ matched the consensus in 145 of the 149 decisions the calendar has one for, came out above it in 3 and below it in 1. That is a record of the consensus. The BoJ rate odds turn the same record into the chance of each move at each meeting, with how right they have been.
Read the full preview on the BoJ December 2026 decision page, the BoJ rate history since 2008, or every central bank's rate today.
The next BoJ decisions
| Date | Time | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2026 | 12:00 PM Tokyo | No consensus yet |
| Jan 22, 2027 | 12:00 PM Tokyo | No consensus yet |
| Mar 18, 2027 | 12:00 PM Tokyo | No consensus yet |
| Apr 28, 2027 | 12:00 PM Tokyo | No consensus yet |
The last 8 BoJ decisions against the consensus
| Date | Decision | Against expected |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | hold 1.25% | as expected |
| Sep 18, 2026 | hike 1.25% | as expected |
| Jul 31, 2026 | hold 1.00% | as expected |
| Jun 16, 2026 | hike 1.00% | as expected |
| Apr 28, 2026 | hold 0.75% | as expected |
| Mar 19, 2026 | hold 0.75% | as expected |
| Jan 23, 2026 | hold 0.75% | as expected |
| Dec 19, 2025 | hike 0.75% | as expected |
BoJ rates: questions
Will the Bank of Japan raise rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet for the Dec 18, 2026 decision. The rate is 1.25%, and the last move was +25 bp on Sep 18, 2026. This is what economists expect, not a promise of what the bank will do.
Will the Bank of Japan cut rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet. The last move was raised 25 bp to 1.25% on Sep 18, 2026.
When is the next BoJ decision?
Friday, December 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM Tokyo. The press conference follows at 3:30 PM Tokyo.
How often is the consensus right about the BoJ?
Since 2008 the BoJ matched the consensus in 145 of the 149 decisions the calendar has one for, came out above it in 3 and below it in 1. Agreement on the number does not say how price reacts: an expected move is usually already in the price.
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