The most volatile forex news: central bank decisions ranked
Of the eight central banks, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decisions move their market the most in the first 15 minutes: a median of 30 pips on NZD/USD, against 12 pips for the Bank of Canada. 105 decisions since Jan 24, 2025, measured the same way, on one-minute candles.
In pips, the RBNZ moves its market most in the first 15 minutes, the BoC least.
Pips flatter some pairs. Against each pair's own hour before, the RBNZ leads at 2.9× that range.
The biggest single first move measured: RBNZ, Oct 28, 2026, 94 pips.
A big first move is not a direction: across all 105 decisions it closed back inside the hour before 64% of the time.
Rate decisions only. Jobs and inflation releases are not measured here.
How the decisions were measured
Every decision since Jan 24, 2025 with one-minute candles, 105 in all, on each bank's own currency pair. For each: the range of the hour before the announcement, the largest
move from the last price before it within 15 minutes (either way), and whether a five-minute candle closed back inside the hour-before range within the hour. The rules
are on the method page, the same for every bank.
Medians, so one wild decision does not decide a bank's place. "× hour before" is the first 15 minutes over the same pair's hour before the decision, the fairer comparison across pairs.
Pips flatter some pairs
A pip on NZD/USD is not the same amount of money, or the same share of the price, as a pip on USD/CAD, and some pairs simply
travel further in an hour. Measured against each pair's own hour before the decision, the order changes: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand leads at 2.9× its hour-before range,
and the Bank of Japan is last at 0.7×. For 5 of the 8 banks, the median first 15 minutes cover more ground than the whole hour before: that hour is when traders
wait, and the decision is when they all act at once. The exceptions: the BoC (0.8×), the ECB (0.8×), the BoJ (0.7×).
The biggest move measured: RBNZ, Oct 28, 2026
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held at 2.75%, 25 bp more dovish than expected. Within 15 minutes of the 2:00 PM Wellington announcement,
NZD/USD had moved 94 pips from where it stood, against an hour before of 11 pips.
The first spike ran below that range by 93 pips and did not close back within the hour.
The size of the first move says nothing about where price ends up. The bank whose first spike most often closed back inside the hour-before range within the hour was the
Bank of Canada (12 of 15); the least often, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (4 of 13).
A volatile decision is a bigger stop to place, not an easier trade. How to trade interest rate decisions has the read, and
How to trade FOMC day the Fed's own record.
Does a surprise make a bigger move?
Of the 105 measured decisions with a consensus, 3 came out away from it. Their median first move was 54 pips, against
21 pips for the 102 that matched it. That is too few surprises to say much. Most decisions are no surprise at all,
so most first moves are orders going where the stops rest, not a verdict on the number; the statement, the press conference and, at the Fed, the dots carry the news.
The news this page does not measure
The US jobs report, inflation figures and growth numbers also move currencies, often as much as a rate decision. This site measures central bank decisions only, so they
are not in these counts, and no ranking here says how a jobs report compares. The calendar has every decision to come, and this
week's are a click away.
Questions
Volatile forex news: questions answered
Which central bank decision moves forex the most?
On the decisions measured here since Jan 24, 2025, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: its pair, NZD/USD, moved a median of 30 pips in the first 15 minutes. Measured against each pair's own hour before, which compares pairs more fairly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand leads, at 2.9× its hour-before range.
What is the most volatile forex news event?
Among scheduled central bank decisions, the largest single first move this site has measured followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Oct 28, 2026: 94 pips on NZD/USD within 15 minutes. Jobs reports and inflation figures move currencies too; they are not measured here.
Why do pips not compare across pairs?
A pip is a different amount of money and a different share of the price on each pair, and some pairs simply travel further in a day. Dividing the first move by the same pair's hour before the decision puts every bank on one scale.
Does a bigger move mean an easier trade?
No. A bigger move is a bigger stop. What the read on this site waits for is the close back: across all 105 decisions, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within the hour 67 times (64%), and the rest held.
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