Will the RBNZ raise rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet for the Dec 9, 2026 decision. The rate is 2.75%, and the last move was +25 bp on Sep 2, 2026.
Figures as of Nov 3, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC.
What the data says
The latest run of moves was 2 rises totalling 50 bp, from Jul 8, 2026 to Sep 2, 2026.
At its latest decision, on Oct 28, 2026, the RBNZ: held at 2.75%, 25 bp more dovish than expected.
Since 2008 the RBNZ matched the consensus in 122 of the 138 decisions the calendar has one for, came out above it in 5 and below it in 11. That is a record of the consensus. The RBNZ rate odds turn the same record into the chance of each move at each meeting, with how right they have been.
Read the full preview on the RBNZ December 2026 decision page, the RBNZ rate history since 2008, or every central bank's rate today.
The next RBNZ decisions
| Date | Time | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2026 | 2:00 PM Wellington | No consensus yet |
| Feb 10, 2027 | 2:00 PM Wellington | No consensus yet |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 2:00 PM Wellington | No consensus yet |
| May 5, 2027 | 2:00 PM Wellington | No consensus yet |
The last 8 RBNZ decisions against the consensus
| Date | Decision | Against expected |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | hold 2.75% | 25 bp more dovish than expected |
| Sep 2, 2026 | hike 2.75% | as expected |
| Jul 8, 2026 | hike 2.50% | as expected |
| May 27, 2026 | hold 2.25% | as expected |
| Apr 8, 2026 | hold 2.25% | as expected |
| Feb 18, 2026 | hold 2.25% | as expected |
| Nov 26, 2025 | cut 2.25% | as expected |
| Oct 8, 2025 | cut 2.50% | 25 bp more dovish than expected |
RBNZ rates: questions
Will the RBNZ raise rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet for the Dec 9, 2026 decision. The rate is 2.75%, and the last move was +25 bp on Sep 2, 2026. This is what economists expect, not a promise of what the bank will do.
Will the RBNZ cut rates in December 2026?
There is no consensus figure yet. The last move was raised 25 bp to 2.75% on Sep 2, 2026.
When is the next RBNZ decision?
Wednesday, December 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM Wellington. The press conference follows at 3:00 PM Wellington.
How often is the consensus right about the RBNZ?
Since 2008 the RBNZ matched the consensus in 122 of the 138 decisions the calendar has one for, came out above it in 5 and below it in 11. Agreement on the number does not say how price reacts: an expected move is usually already in the price.
Learn the read behind every projection.
Forexia teaches the same read this site measures: where the stops rest before a release, the hunt, and the close back that says it is done. Courses, live signals for members, and a community of traders who chart the same way.