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BoJ Interest Rate Decision, January 2025

The Bank of Japan raised the short-term policy interest rate 25 bp to 0.50% on January 24, 2025, as expected.

Decision0.50%▲ hike +25 bp
Against expectedAs expectedexpected 0.50%
Previous0.25%short-term policy interest rate
USD/JPY one hour later −95 pips from the last price before
The result

What the BoJ decided in January 2025

The move +25 bp Raised 25 bp to 0.50%, from 0.25%.
Against expected No surprise Economists expected: hike 25 bp to 0.50%. The decision was as expected.
Timing 12:23 PM Tokyo Friday, January 24, 2025; press conference at 3:30 PM Tokyo.
What price did

USD/JPY after the BoJ decision, minute by minute

One-minute candles, Tokyo time. The box is the hour before the announcement. How we measure.

USD/JPY one-minute chart around the Bank of Japan decision of Jan 24, 2025 The hour before the 12:23 announcement ranged 46 pips. The first spike went above it by 15 pips, and a five-minute candle closed back inside after 5 minutes. 155.0 155.5 156.0 156.5 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 THE HOUR BEFORE BoJ 12:23 Spike 156.407 · 15 pips past the hour's high Closed back inside · 5 min
  1. The hour beforeUSD/JPY ranged 46 pips, from 155.800 to 156.261, and was at 156.022 at the announcement.
  2. The first spike After 1 minute price went through the hour's high and ran 15 pips past it.
  3. The close back A five-minute candle closed back inside the range after 5 minutes.
  4. The other side Price then traded through the opposite edge of the range within four hours.
  5. The moves From the last price before the announcement: −20 pips at 15 minutes, −95 pips at one hour, −58 pips at four hours.
For context

Across 14 measured BoJ decisions since January 2025, the first spike closed back inside the hour-before range within 60 minutes in 11 (79%), and in 6 of those price then took the other side within four hours. In the other 3 the first move held. Median move in the first 15 minutes: 28 pips.

This decision is one of the closed-back cases. Counts include the decisions where it did not close back. All BoJ dates · BoJ overview.

Questions

BoJ January 2025 decision: questions

What time was the BoJ interest rate decision on Jan 24, 2025?

It was announced at 12:23 PM Tokyo (10:23 PM EST New York, 3:23 AM London London), with the press conference at 3:30 PM Tokyo.

What did the BoJ decide in January 2025?

Raised 25 bp to 0.50% (previous 0.25%). Economists expected: hike 25 bp to 0.50%, so the decision was as expected.

How did USD/JPY react to the BoJ decision in January 2025?

On one-minute candles: the hour before ranged 46 pips; the first spike went above it by 15 pips; a five-minute candle closed back inside after 5 minutes; after one hour USD/JPY was −95 pips from its pre-announcement price.

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